From the Union Leader:
US Senate: 7 candidates
- 3 – Kelly Ayotte: 23
- 2 – Jim Bender: 74
- 4 – Bill Binnie: 10
- 5 – Ken Blevens: 8
- 7 – Chris Booth: 2
- 1 – Ovide Lamontagne: 109
- 6 – Dennis Lamare: 4
US Congress:
CD-1: 7 candidates
- 2 – Rich Ashooh: 34
- 6 – Peter Bearse: 2
- 4 – Bob Bestani: 7
- 1 – Frank Guinta: 44
- 5 – Philip Hodsen: 5
- 3 – Sean Mahoney: 16
- 6 – Richard Parent: 2
CD-2: 7 candidates
- 3 – Charlie Bass: 13
- 2 – Bob Guida: 36
- 1 -Jennifer Horn: 55
- 6 – Andrew Kohlhofer: 1
- 5 – Wesley Sonner: 3
- 5 – Katrina Swett: 3
- 4 – Howard Wilson: 9
NH Governor: 7 candidates
- 4 – John Babiarz: 21
- 7 – Frank Emiro: 1
- 2 – Jack Kimball: 76
- 5 – John Lynch: 9
- 1 – John Stephen: 93
- 6 – Frank Sullivan: 2
- 3 – Karen Testerman: 25
I chuckled when I read one of the observations in the article:
"I think the activists aren’t happy with the two major candidates, the two leading candidates being Ayotte and Binnie," University of New Hampshire pollster Andy Smith said in a phone interview.
Ya think? D’oh. I’d add the same for Charlie Bass in CD-2. Sure, these folks are raising or have the most money in their coffers. Will it be sufficient? Can it be sufficient?
Look, Binnie can self-fund entirely if desired – and it seems clear that he is putting much stock in the "air war" as opposed to the traditional retail politicking that is much of NH tradition and lore. Can he be successful with this?
Thus far, all the money spent is showing up with very little results with those that eat and sleep grassroots politics. Conservatives, too, are seemingly not buying the sell. Whether or not the general public will respond in the Primary remains to be seen. It will be interesting to see what the ROI / vote will be for him then. However, if this was a company of which he was CEO, would the Board be saying to shutter it?
Kelly, too, is not faring well with the "political early adopters" either. In this time of grassroots with the TEA Party and 912ers, is the Gregg / Establishment "touch" a harbinger?
Given the crowds that I’ve been at, I’m not at all surprised at Ovide’s domination in this poll – this is ConservativeLand for the activists and they all trend pretty much to very conservative. Added to the other polls, it is looking good, but when the campaign has to switch from grassroots to the "air war" (and then back for Get Out The Vote), will the cash be there? Or will grassroots carry?
Again, what seems to be the "best man but not groom" syndrome really should be viewed as an encouraging event for Jim Bender. My suspicion is that when it does come to the "air war", he may not have as many ads, but if the more creative touch (sorry, but Binnie’s ads are rather boring) continues, he may not HAVE to run as many.
In the Gov race, I pretty much think that it will be between Jack Kimball and John Stephen. I was asked if this poll was different than the previous ones – and the answer is sure! The previous ones were free – this was paid admission. Am I insinuating that the vote was bought? Course not – if that was true, Binnie should have stomped everyone else – and didn’t. But, the ticket admission price, I believe (even as minimal as this was) can have a wee bit of skew to it. But a bit – it still is really about the GOTV – Get Out The Vote.
CD – 1: Thus far, Sean Mahoney is spending a boat load of money on the air war and staffing (and anyone that has Hynsie on staff automatically has an edge in the online game. Yet, he lost to Rich Ashooh – interesting. The question remains is IF Sean sticks with the air war, with Frank concentrating on the grassroots, who fares best in September?
CD – 2: still a mess, from this Conservative’s eyeballs. Bob and Jennifer are the Conservatives while Bass is the Center. In today’s environment, that fact, of being in the middle (even in the more moderate CD-2) would be a disaster. Trying to claim a TEA Party mantle has not helped Bass – and the activists have continued to repay him for not being truthful with today’s vote. Problem is, he may indeed have a $$ advantage….
2 months….get it in gear all!
