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As we get ever closer (at least we think) to the NH Primary, the one thing that’s apparent to me as I observe the scene is that the Granite State is still up for grabs, with no clear frontrunner sporting some insurmountable lead. The front four, Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, and McCain all show signs that they are going to make an all out sprint to the finish line (wherever it is). We have reported in many prior postings that the enthusiasm and numbers turning out for the various candidates is quite high. The last Giuliani, McCain, and Romney events the ‘Grok has attended have been standing room only. As a Republican, this is heartening indeed. I love a good campaign, and watching all comers espousing core conservative positions is the added bonus in this cycle.
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As proof to the fluidity of the NH Republican presidential landscape, consider this analysis of the most recent polling data. In a confidential memo to McCain’s NH leadership team from National Political Director Michael Dennehy obtained by GraniteGrok, we find the campaign satisfied with where it stands at the moment in this must-win state:
We also received some very good news from The Boston Globe poll that was released today. Andy Smith, of the UNH Survey Center, conducted the poll and he was quoted as saying the race is “still really open”. While the ballot indicates that Romney has 32, Rudy 20 and John 17, it doesn’t discuss the important numbers inside the numbers..Of significance, only 16% of those sampled have “definitely decided” who they are voting for in the Primary. And of those 16%, the race is a dead heat with Romney at 29%, John at 24% and Rudy at 24%. However, the best news of the entire poll for our campaign in New Hampshire, is that since Andy Smith’s last poll at the end of September, John has increased his “definitely decided” from 10% to 24% – a 240% gain. Romney has only increased 4 points and Rudy only 3. This further illustrates the momentum that John has in New Hampshire and is a sign of good news to come. It also proves what we have known all along – when John McCain meets voters, looks them in the eye, and gives them “straight talk”, they are boarding the bus for good!
As for the big push for the goal that is now underway, you know McCain fields the strongest ground game of all the Republican campaigns– no one does full contact politicking like he does. Writes Dennehy,
Crowds at our Town Hall meetings are growing and getting much more enthusiastic, veterans are showing up at campaign events in droves, and phone calls and emails to our headquarters are keeping our volunteers overtime..You will see John in every corner of the state in the weeks ahead and we’ll need your help more than ever. As more and more voters tune in to the race, we expect to have the same success converting undecideds into supporters. We need to grow our local organizations and turn your friends and neighbors into supporters too. If this conversion rate holds, we’ll be taking the lead for good on, or even earlier than, January 8 – when we EXPECT the Primary to be held.
The battle is on!
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The entire text of the memo follows:
***C O N F I D E N T I A L***
TO: NEW HAMPSHIRE LEADERSHIPFROM: MIKE DENNEHY — NATIONAL POLITICAL DIRECTORDATE: NOVEMBER 11, 2007RE: NH POLLING and THE COMEBACK CONTINUES
Today, John McCain wrapped up another successful 3-day swing through New Hampshire. He attended the Union Leader’s Santa Fund luncheon with a few hundred people, the Marine Corp Annual Birthday Luncheon with over 200 people, held a Town Hall meeting in Rochester with 300 voters, shook hands at the UNH-BC Hockey game (he was good luck as they won 5-2 and Brad Flashaines from Arizona scored the winning goal), and then he attended the ceremony at the State Veteran’s Cemetery in Boscawen. By the end of the trip, John had covered over 400 miles, met about 1,500 people and signed up numerous new volunteers for the New Hampshire organization.
We also received some very good news from The Boston Globe poll that was released today. Andy Smith, of the UNH Survey Center, conducted the poll and he was quoted as saying the race is “still really open”. While the ballot indicates that Romney has 32, Rudy 20 and John 17, it doesn’t discuss the important numbers inside the numbers.
Of significance, only 16% of those sampled have “definitely decided” who they are voting for in the Primary. And of those 16%, the race is a dead heat with Romney at 29%, John at 24% and Rudy at 24%. However, the best news of the entire poll for our campaign in New Hampshire, is that since Andy Smith’s last poll at the end of September, John has increased his “definitely decided” from 10% to 24% – a 240% gain. Romney has only increased 4 points and Rudy only 3. This further illustrates the momentum that John has in New Hampshire and is a sign of good news to come. It also proves what we have known all along – when John McCain meets voters, looks them in the eye, and gives them “straight talk”, they are boarding the bus for good!
This shift in momentum has a similar feel as in the 2000 campaign. Crowds at our Town Hall meetings are growing and getting much more enthusiastic, veterans are showing up at campaign events in droves, and phone calls and emails to our headquarters are keeping our volunteers overtime.
You will see John in every corner of the state in the weeks ahead and we’ll need your help more than ever. As more and more voters tune in to the race, we expect to have the same success converting undecideds into supporters. We need to grow our local organizations and turn your friends and neighbors into supporters too. If this conversion rate holds, we’ll be taking the lead for good on, or even earlier than, January 8 – when we EXPECT the Primary to be held.
Also, we are excited to announce the first-of-its kind, for the First-in-the-Nation, New Hampshire specific media team for the campaign. The team includes Jim Burke, of Burke Advertising in Merrimack, Sean Owen, of wedu in Manchester, and Paul Young, of Calypso Communications in Portsmouth. The New Hampshire media team will develop campaign ads and ask supporters and voters to choose the one they like best through grassroots activities and through the website: www.VoteMcCainAd.com.
Over the coming weeks, the three individuals will create their own ads and unveil them at house parties, campaign leadership meetings, and via the Internet. Each ad will be voted on and the ad that wins the largest amount of votes will be aired in New Hampshire shortly after it is chosen.
Thank you for your hard work. While our success starts at the top with John McCain, we all know that our campaign volunteers are the ones on the front lines doing the hard work and delivering our message for John to people he can’t reach himself.
Stay tuned and get ready for the real fun to begin!