An MIT-Yale study of government data finds the current population in the country to be 22.1 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. That means we currently have an illegal alien population of about 6.7%. That’s more than one in every 20 people in the country is here illegally. The number of illegal immigrants in the United States is about double the widely given estimate. The current fallacy is 11.3 million illegal immigrants is one the media repeats often and widely. According to this new academic study using a more precise method the error is significant.
Why the big change?
The research was done by professors from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Yale. It determines that 22.1 million illegal immigrants live in the U.S. Even when implementing extremely conservative parameters, the study measures the illegal immigrant population at 16.7 million. That is about 1.5 times higher than the figure universally in use by government and media. It means about 5.1% of total American population is illegal aliens.
The researchers say the number currently in use is inaccurate. It’s creation was from the data of population surveys. This is not very reliable for measuring hidden populations. Researchers write in their report:
“In this method, the size of the unauthorized immigrant population residing in the United States is set equal to the estimate of the total foreign-born population minus the legally resident foreign-born population… The total foreign-born population estimate is derived from surveys that ask respondents whether they were born outside of the United States (and whether they are American citizens), specifically either the American Community Survey or the Current Population Survey.”
MIT Professor Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi, says surveys aren’t the best method to count illegal immigrants. They probably want to stay undetected. Fazel-Zarandi said in a university publication:
“It’s likely that undocumented immigrants are more difficult to locate and survey than other foreign-born residents and if contacted, they may be inclined to misreport their country of origin, citizenship, and number of household residents, fearing the legal consequences of revealing their status…”
The change made
For those reasons the MIT-Yale team used comprehensive government data on border apprehensions, foreigners who overstay visas and deportations as well as immigration and death rates to conduct their broad study. The information used for the research was based on statistics from 1990 to 2016. The team of academics used a sophisticated mathematical model that tracks population inflows and outflows to combine the data and reach the illegal alien population estimate of more than 22 million.
It was a very complicated task that involving subcomponents that had to be evaluated for specific level of certainty and incorporated into the mathematical model. The bottom line is: based on this seemingly reliable method and precise numerical formula, the U.S. has double the number of illegal immigrants we had previously thought.
The inquiry determined biggest growth in the illegal immigrant population occurred between 1990 and the early 2000s. The peak years were in 2007 and 2008. The report states, “The results of our analysis are clear: The number of undocumented immigrants for each year is estimated to be substantially larger than has been appreciated at least in widely accepted previous estimates…”
Fiscal impacts
There is no disputing that illegal immigration takes a huge toll on American taxpayers. Those numbers do not lie. A detailed analysis of federal, state and local programs that include education, medical, law enforcement and welfare determined that American taxpayers spend a mind-boggling $134.9 billion annually on illegal aliens.
The in-depth probe, conducted by a Washington D.C. nonprofit dedicated to studying immigration issues, reveals that state and local taxpayers get stuck with an overwhelming chunk, $116 billion of the burden.
State and local expenditures for services provided to illegal aliens total $88.9 billion. Additionally, there are federal expenditures of $45.8 billion. Open borders proponents who claim illegal immigrants contribute by paying taxes, government… The study figures show… Well, not so much. Only $19 billion was recouped by the federal government. State and local governments are largely just stuck with the bill. The current population in the country to be 22.1 million illegal immigrants in the U.S.