“If you know the enemy … you need not fear the results of battle.”
So said the ancient Chinese General Sun Tzu in The Art of War, which has long been studied by military professionals—but not so much by American presidents.
Franklin D. Roosevelt went to the 1945 Yalta Conference planning to charm and cajole Soviet Dictator Josef Stalin to help shape the post-WWII world. He threw Winston Churchill (who’d read The Art of War) under the bus. FDR was confident that his political skills would serve him well at that historic summit conference. But he didn’t understand that he was not dealing with American politicos but rather a totally evil, ruthless ruler who could only be swayed by brute force, not clever bonhomie. Stalin ended up getting what he wanted, and eventually Churchill’s Iron Curtain descended across Europe for two generations.
Lyndon B. Johnson and America were stuck in a horrible Vietnam quagmire in 1967. Like FDR, LBJ sought to deploy his political skills to bend Communist strongman Ho Chi Minh to his will—offering to subsidize some massive development projects if Ho would succumb to the financial bribery.
“Old Ho can’t turn down the deal I’m offering,” claimed the bombastic Texan.
Ho could and did ignore LBJ. Ho was not a craven congressman but a committed revolutionary who’d once lived in a cave. He was no more swayed by LBJ than Stalin was by FDR. The Vietnam conflict ended badly for the U.S.
Which brings us to Donald J. Trump, who tried to utilize bullying and American political logic to get his way with the rulers of an Iranian authoritarian theocracy. To be sure, Iran needed to be countered, and Trump was correct that the Ayatollahs simply could not be allowed to go nuclear. The 2025 military strikes that decimated Iran’s nuclear facilities served notice.
But the 2026 Iranian military conflict created all kinds of well-documented bad outcomes and unintended consequences that need not be listed here. Trump was apparently guided by The Art of the Deal as opposed to the Art of War. What worked with NYC moguls would not work with Teheran terrorists who didn’t have to deal with a free media or a viable opposition movement. They could and did wait him out.
Trump repeatedly threatens to bomb Iran into submission. Military historians could have told him that would never work. Hitler thought he could bomb Britain into submission. He only hardened British resolve. The Allies tried to bomb Germany into submission. It only caused Germans to rally behind Hitler. The U.S. tried to bomb North Vietnam “back to the stone age.” It only made Ho and company more resilient.
We ourselves were bombed at Pearl Harbor. How did that end up working out for Japan?
Trump also called for the Iranian people to rise up. “The hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government.”
President George H.W. Bush similarly called for the Iraqi people to rise up against Saddam Hussein in 1991, after Operation Desert Storm. Iraqi Shias indeed rose up. They were slaughtered, just as Iranian dissidents were slaughtered. Does no one in the current administration know any history, recent or otherwise?
Who does the President listen to?
Trump’s first Secretary of Defense, former Marine Corps General Jim Mattis, read history, including The Art of War, as all Marine officers do. If only people of Mattis’ stature had positions in the current administration. A man of honor, Mattis resigned rather than sacrifice his integrity. Conversely, Trump’s current Secretary of War seems to be an inexperienced sycophant.
John F. Kennedy immediately fired his CIA Director after the 1961 Cuban Bay of Pigs disaster. JFK’s approval ratings subsequently went up. There’s a history lesson there, but does Trump read any history? Changes need to be made.
Radical progressives are gleeful at the new inflation, the gas prices, and so much else. Those of us who fear the consequences of a blue November tsunami hope that the current administration can make the many policy and personnel changes necessary to signal that our ship of state can right itself, sooner rather than later.
Sun Tzu also said that “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.”
Hopefully, the current administration recognizes opportunities for change before it is too late.
