Hurricanes are a pillar of the climate fearmongering community, so we tend to spend (perhaps too much) time on them. We think it matters. The conquest of American liberty is paved with things like government control of health care and energy (through climate policy), and 2024 was supposed to be the year the earth got even with us for decades of refusing to deliver on climate fearmongers’ promises.
How’d that go?
NOAA is the high priest of apocalyptic hurricane predictions, so we’ll begin with that. Back in May, we shared their projections alongside a few others.
Basin Forecast
Names Storms 25-30
Hurricanes 14-16
Major Hurricanes 6-8
Impact Forecast
Named storm Impacts 10-14
Hurricane Impacts 5-8
Major Hurricane Impacts 3-5
The season officially ends on November 30, but the basin is currently devoid of relevant activity, and November storms are extremely rare – certainly of sustained strength and consequence.
We’ve had fifteen named storms. Nine of those became, at least briefly, strong enough to be hurricanes. Five named storms made a US landfall. Beryl (Cat 1), Debby (Cat 1), Francine (Cat 2), Helene (Cat 4), and Milton (Cat 3).
Related: Fact: Climate Change Isn’t Making All Hurricanes Disappear
If a November spike fails, the forecast will prove another over-exaggeration. Both the Basin and Impact forecasts were high (actual US impacts turned out to be correct on the low end of that prediction), arguably for good reasons. We’re still overdue. The El Nina thing. The boiling Atlantic narrative. A long stretch with low-end cyclonic energy (globally).
To that last point, its total annual energy has been rising slowly and cyclically in tune with the available data so at some point in the next few years, we ought to see what they hoped for in 2024. Maybe worse. The trouble, as is always, is keeping scientism out of the science. That and a leash on the idea that the government is manipulating storms for political purposes, which only makes sense if the results advance the agenda. A decade+ long hurricane season drought and another underperforming year suggest that whatever science might exist to screw with mother nature (US weather manipulation created heat waves in Europe?) it isn’t living up to its potential (or its conspiracy theory marketing).
I’m not saying it couldn’t, or they are not on it; it just doesn’t seem like we’re there yet – with the manipulation or the predictions.
