You can feel it in the air (Phil Collins or Bernie Seigle?)—the promised energy of a heated Atlantic hurricane Season. The oceans are boiling, and we are overdue for an above-normal number of storms in the Atlantic Basin. This should be a banner year for storms.
The obvious predicament here is that the Cult will declare victory no matter what happens. For example, if we have the coldest May on record, that would be a sign that they have accurately predicted the anthropogenic climate apocalypse.
There’s no losing unless you mean the prediction game. They are bad at that, so let’s review the best guess for 2024.
If you like to bet the NOAA line on hurricane predictions, an easy way to lose money, they’ve got another best guess for 2024: 23 storms, 11 of which will become hurricanes and five of which will reach Category 3 or stronger. Stories of a warm Atlantic suggest this could be closer than in recent years, in which NOAA has blown the call by a wide margin in one form or another. Two years ago, not even close. Last year, total storms were good, but few made landfall, and NOAA had guessed there’d be more.
The reality is they have no clue what the weather is going to be like in a few days, so months, years, or decades are, at best, guesses – a well poisoned by politics and climate cult narratives. It’s not so much science and faith, but there are resources out there that stick to the data and trends based on past years. Weatherbell analytics, for example – and they say we’re screwed on Hurricanes this year.
Basin Forecast
Names Storms 25-30
Hurricanes 14-16
Major Hurricanes 6-8
Impact Forecast
Named storm Impacts 10-14
Hurricane Impacts 5-8
Major Hurricane Impacts 3-5
I trust Weatherbell more than NOAA—there are no politics in the analytics. But we won’t know until we know, and the season doesn’t start until June 1st, which is only a few days away. We’re due for some hot days this week after more than a handful of unseasonably cool nights and mild days. Given the hype about Ocean temps and the 2024 El Nino hysteria, you’d think things might get started early.
Eleven days to June 1st.
At the moment, there is nothing to see in the Northern Hemisphere—no activity. It means nothing, but the consensus would have loved a story about a May Hurricane formation. They would say it’s a sign of the apocalypse. We need more money to combat climate change. Stop modernity!
There have been four May Hurricanes since 1889. Two were in 1889 and 1908 when the meaningless concentration of CO2 was even less prevalent. The next was in 1951, and the last was in 1970 when the weather fascists were promising we’d all freeze to death (global cooling, not warming).
May storms are rare – nor are they indicative of anything related to CO2 or Western living or the fear-mongering to bring it low. Of course, this has no bearing on a cult. More snow supports earlier claims we’d never see snow again. The absence of accelerated sea level rise doesn’t mean it won’t happen if they keep predicting it. More storms, fewer storms, you can’t win. Or can you?
There has been some movement toward sanity. The Cult has been unable to sustain its moratorium on contradicting science. The question as to why we can’t question it, especially given how poorly their models have been, has gained favor.
One monster hurricane could wipe that all out, though. They’ve been working in this room for forty years, and this is not a jury. One dissenter is not enough to find the West not guilty of the climate crimes of which she is accused.
So we keep chipping away.
