Email Doodlings – it’s the HB617 numbers that are fishy

Well, we’ve gone from full blown guns all the time to HB617 having a run.  Sure, each topic is important, but for us, each one brings up LOTS of secondary & tertiary items to be contemplated, and so it is with HB617.  However, aNOTHER reader sent in this analysis on the spreadsheet that David Campbell was sending out – that Bill O’Brien sent to us (emphasis mine):

Good morning, Skip,

Sorry I’m late to this party but I just read your post re: HB617.

Hasn’t anybody noticed the double counting in Campbell’s (DOS) spreadsheet? Take a look at the revenue estimated for FY16, due to the 7/1/13 $0.04 increase: $175,531.20. Now look at the revenue for the same year, due to the additional 7/1/14 $0.04 increase to $0.08: $351,062.40. The spreadsheet takes credit for both a $0.04 increase and a $0.08 increase, as if the total increase was $0.12.

Between FY16 and FY18, there is over a million dollars too much revenue projected.

Deceptive or sloppy? In a perfect world, I wouldn’t suspect deception. But, in this world, I’d need more info to decide.

Here’s another question to ponder. DOS assumes an average use of 100 gallons of gas per year for boats, OHRVs and snowmobiles. I don’t own any of those so I don’t have an appreciation for how much fuel they use. But, I would point out that 100 gallons of gas would take an average 22mpg car 2200 miles–about 20 percent of what a typical car travels in a year. Does the average boat, OHRV and snowmobile really use the same amount of gas in a year as a car uses in two and a half months? That seems like a lot….

Not to be a total skeptic, but notice that to err on the high side means more highway money flowing to non-highway purposes.

Hmmm…..Math is hard – for Politicians.

Unless it isn’t about Math at all….