I met Shane for the first time this past fall at the American for Prosperity event back in May, 2011 where Ovide Lamontagne was honored as their 2011 Conservative of the Year and a “Presidential Summit on Spending and Job Creation” featuring the Republicans vying to be the Republican nominee for President. We had the chance to chat with him then – listen to the fifth audio snippet on the page. Well, he asked if I would be willing to write a post on how I thought the Iowa Caucus results would play here in NH at his site of Caffeinated Thoughts – so I asked him to do the same:
Why the Iowa Caucus Results Should Matter
The tired cliche heard around the world rang hollow just days before the Iowa Caucus. Jon Huntsman, desperate for attention, for the second time said, “Iowa picks corn, but New Hampshire picks Presidents.” Pretty desperate, but he is three-fourths right. I have to agree that Iowa does pick corn (and soybeans). I will also acknowledge New Hampshire’s prominent role in presidential nomination politics. You play a very key role! All one has to do is ask John McCain how important New Hampshire is. Ask Bob Dole, George W. Bush, and now Rick Santorum how important the Iowa Caucus is and they would likely say – extremely.
I want to share with you three reasons why I believe Tuesday’s Iowa Caucus results should matter to those planning on voting in next Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary:
- We weed out the weak. You always have fewer candidates after the Iowa Caucus than what we have before. We take the time to vet candidates, ask questionsduring town hall meetings, shake their hand, listen to their stump speech and evaluate. We also like you watch the debates, listen/watch/read the media coverage and get pummeled with the negative ads (I’m sorry you’re currently going through what we just went through, but it will be amazing how quiet it will be on January 11th.). We’ve eliminated the two Minnesotans for you, no more Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty to divide up the Republican field. Think of it this way – fewer political ads and you get a chance to see who may be a viable candidate if you’re not in love with Mitt Romney, which I doubt many of us in either state are. It should have been three candidates, but not all of them have gotten the message. If the lose badly in Iowa, and are polling poorly in New Hampshire (as well as South Carolina) that should let them know that there is something fundamentally wrong with their campaign.
- Momentum… We can give a candidate significant momentum without much campaign cash. Ask Mike Huckabee back in 2008, and ask Rick Santorum. Everyone had written him off, but now look at three Rasmussen polls out today. First the national poll which is not as important as the state by state polls, but Santorum has been propelled to 2nd just 8 points behind Romney, considering the ups and downs of the candidates and the fact that Santorum just had 1% in that poll two months ago show a clear upward trajectory. What should strike New Hampshire residents is that Santorum is now in third place with 13% ahead of Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman within striking distance of Ron Paul. The main event in New Hampshire is definitely for 2nd place as Mitt Romney has what seems to be a rock solid lead, but Santorum proved himself to be a hard worker in Iowa and he’s not giving up on New Hampshire (unlike that Perry guy). What I find interesting, and I think Grok readers will as well, is that he’s got the same message in New Hampshire that he did in Iowa. He is who he is, and he doesn’t put up a false flag. Unlike some other candidate we all know, and unlike the candidate who wouldn’t campaign in the state he’s uncomfortable with. I know it’s because Iowans are in love with their ethanol subsidy, right….. Looking to South Carolina which New Hampshire helps to build momentum towards as well (at least for candidates who campaign there) Santorum is running a close secondand that will likely be the ultimate battleground between Romney and the anti-Romney candidate which appears that it will be Santorum. You know who really picks Presidents? South Carolina with help from Iowa and New Hampshire, they have a 100% record on picking the candidate who would be the eventual nominee. They couldn’t do that without us however.
- Iowans care about the economy and national security, not just social issues. Something I grew tired of is how Iowa’s Republicans are being discounted because we’re dominated by evangelicals… Guilty as charged. That we care too much for social issues, that’s true. Both of our states now have same sex unions, but at least your legislature voted for it, it was forced upon us by the Supreme Court (I would suspect residents of a state with the motto, “Live Free or Die” would hate a judicial oligarchy as much as we do). That said, in numerous polls taken in Iowa it showed that the economy and jobs, not social issues were the prominent issues. I also have not met social conservative who was not a fiscal conservative as well. We would not send somebody on to New Hampshire who wasn’t a fiscal conservative and did not have a specific job creation plan. Rick Santorum does and he won counties, like Jasper County in Iowa that have lost many manufacturing jobs, and that is one of the reasons we sent him to you. We also found that he had a great grasp on the threats facing our national security as he has studied in depth. That is something we found wanting in Ron Paul who also did well here with his message of fiscal discipline.
Both Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans represent the mainstream, and both of our state’s Republicans appreciated Ronald Reagan. Iowa did make the mistake of not choosing Reagan in our 1980 Iowa Caucus. New Hampshire got it right. I hope that you join us in choosing the candidate who represents the three legs of conservatism that Reagan unified, and that is Rick Santorum.
Shane Vander Hart is a native Iowan who is the editor-in-chief of the Caffeinated Communications Network that includes Caffeinated Thoughts, Caffeinated Theology, Caffeinated Carolina and Iowa Grounds.
Shane Vander Hart
Publisher/Editor-in-Chief
Caffeinated Communications Network
P.O. Box 57184
Des Moines, IA 50317
(515) 321-5077
vanderhart@caffeinatedcommunications.net
http://caffeinatedcommunications.net
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