For we political junkies, the campaign season is well under way. For "regular folk"? Hardly more than a blip on their radar screens if it shows up at all. From Gallup comes this interesting chart:
When I start looking at candidates, I am always, and foremost, looking for those who best represent my outlook and philosophy. That said, those are not the only data points or indicators on which to balance a decision; others include (in no particular order):
- Which political operatives / staffers have signed on with a candidate (perhaps an automatic show of good performance, or "man, that campaign is alREADY in trouble!")
- Money raised by a given campaign?
- Name recognition ("Buddy who?")?
- Which local activists are signing on with candidates as volunteers?
- Which activists are signaling support for one or more candidates, or a category of candidates?
- Overall staff capability (can these guys organize and work well together)?
- Likeability factor
- Ability to inspire trust
- Ability to recover after stumbles (either by staff or by the candidate)
- Perception of a message, and the ability to stay on message
And then there is the above chart – either a function of luck, charisma, or sheer personality at the right time and place. Intensity. Think of it as "candidate glue" – if you like someone, how MUCH do you like that candidate (all things considered).
To tell you the truth, I see three surprises:
- Very curious to see the lack of intensity for Ron Paul, as his supporters are known to be "if in, right to the firewall". There is no "matter of degree" in a manner of speaking"; it is a binary operation as in "Ron Paul – meh…" or are absolutely full on and fanatically devoted.
- Thus, I am kinda surprised to see both Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann leading the pack for intensity. BOTH are firmly committed to their philosophies and both are well spoken in their speechifying and in small groups. They are not chameleons politically in that they are not marketing to a given sub-niche just to win an election even as they are both TEA Party favorites. And given that TEA Party folks do tend to be fiercely adamant about their view, that does not surprise me at all; they are sick and tired of the same political pablum and want folks to fight for THEM for a change – something that both are showing not just a willingness to but an eagerness to take on both Obama AND the Political Class (which has both Dems and Repubs).
- I am very surprised to see the relative lack of intensity for Santorum and Pawlenty. Here in NH, both have spent much time here in state and are spending well to build up staffs that can get the campaign grunt work done (and yes, I know a number of them).
It just shows that it is a wide open race – and it just shows that there’s a reason why the game is played.
(H/T: Hot Air)
