For going on half a decade, beginning with the lead-up to the passage of the Global Warming Solutions Act (GWSA) in 2020, the Democrat/Progressive majority’s Voldemort number – that which shall not be named – is what these greenhouse gas reduction policies will cost Vermonters. They have already spent millions of our taxpayer dollars on newly hired bureaucrats, highly paid consultants, and per diem reimbursements for scores of volunteer advisory group members to consider many aspects of these policies – except what the friggin’ things will cost you and me.
Some brave Harry Potters of the accounting world have tried to come up with cost estimates for one component of the GWSA, the “Clean Heat Standard” (CHS) carbon tax on home heating fuels (Act 18) that will pay for the programs necessary to meet the mandates for the housing sector. Secretary of the Agency of Natural Resources, Julie Moore, determined that if implemented, it would cost Vermonters who heat with oil, propane, kerosene, or natural gas around 70 cents more per gallon. The Ethan Allen Institute did a more in-depth analysis that pegged it closer to $4 more per gallon.
Most recently, the firm NV5, commissioned by the Department of Public Services which is one of the agencies that will oversee the CHS, released its initial draft potential study of the Clean Heat Standard and determined it would cost $17 billion over twenty-five years, which translates into an initial price per gallon impact of over $3. (The final draft of the report is due at the end of August.)
But pay no attention to those bean counters behind the curtain! says Rep. Laura Sibilia (I-Dover), who spearheaded passage of the Clean Heat Carbon Tax in the House. Such attempts at fiscal responsibility/transparency she said at a town hall meeting in her district are “irresponsible” and “political.” The proper thing to do at this point is, “Let’s get some baseline information here,” before worrying about what the program will cost.
Okay. Two things about that….
First, you’ve been working on this program for at least three years in the legislature and the lobbyists for longer than that, and you’re claiming you still don’t have enough baseline information to come up with even a ballpark cost estimate? That’s absurd. Or you’re totally incompetent. Or maybe absurdly incompetent.
Second, you most certainly do have baseline information. Plenty of it! It’s all in the Climate Action Plan, and you’ve had that monstrosity in hand since 2021. The “baseline information” is that to meet the home heating mandates of the GWSA – according to your own experts — you have to, among other things, weatherize 120,000 homes, install 177,000 heat pumps, 137,500 heat pump water heaters, and 15,000 advanced wood heating system, and switch 21,000 homes to biofuels by 2030. Each of these nearly half a million actions has a Googlable, estimateable price attached to it. We know how many gallons of home heating fuel we use every year. After that, it’s not hard math!
Will it give a pinpoint, accurate, down-to-the-penny invoice of what a twenty-five-year program will be? No. Nothing will. But it’s more than enough information to determine if it’s a ballpark Vermonters can afford to play in. And any moron can see that we’re not talking about millions of dollars here or tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars here. We are talking about BILLIONS of dollars. $17 billion? $15 billion? $20 billion? We may not know for sure. But — for sure – we know it is not affordable for people trying to heat their homes through Vermont winters.
Even Rep. Sibilia seems to recognize there must be an affordability red line that cannot be crossed. As she said at her forum, “Let’s say it [the cost estimate] comes in, and it is $17 billion. I think the legislature will probably pay attention to that and wonder if that’s a good idea.”
While the words “probably” and “wonder” in that sentence concern me greatly, it raises a good and critical question for Rep. Sibilia and every candidate running for the Vermont House and Senate this November: How much of an estimated cost increase to the price of heating fuel will it take before are you an automatic NO VOTE for moving forward with the Clean Heat Standard in 2025?
Ten cents a gallon? Twenty? Seventy cents? Three dollars?
It’s worth remembering here that Rep. Jim Harrison (R-Chittenden) proposed an amendment to the Clean Heat Standard that would have capped any impact the program had on the price of heating fuels at no more than twenty cents per gallon. Sibilia and 100 more of her Democrat, Progressive and Independent colleagues rejected the amendment 43-101. Every Republican supported Harrison’s amendment. There just aren’t enough of Republicans at present to stop this stuff.
And, by the way, the answer to that question you should be looking for is 1¢. If the Clean Heat Standard adds one cent to the cost of Vermonters’ home heating bills, I promise to VOTE NO when the legislature will decide to move forward with the program OR NOT in January 2025. Any number higher than that, vote for the other person.
