Nothing good to report for Republicans after yesterday’s off-year elections. The gubernatorial candidate in Virginia, who distanced herself from Trump and was not endorsed by him, lost by fifteen points to an “Orange Man Bad” strategy. The psychopath “two bullets and watch his children die is his arms” Attorney General candidate even won, illustrating that a “Republicans have higher moral principles and don’t endorse murder” counterargument didn’t work.
The socialist-really-communist won in New York’s mayoral race with an anti-Trump plus Free Stuff! message. And Gavin Newsom’s referendum on gerrymandering to take on Trump passed in California.
Excuses can be made in these cases: These are reliably blue electorates (like, cough! Vermont), the Republican candidate in Virginia, Winsome Sears, was weak (although she is the sitting Lieutenant Governor), and the anti-Mamdani vote was split between independent Cuomo and Republican Sliwa (but he still got a hair over 50 percent, so…).
No such excuses can be made, or not nearly to the same extent, in New Jersey, where Trump actively endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli, running for an open seat where he almost knocked off the incumbent four years ago, and where Trump only lost in 2024 by 6 percent, got clobbered by 13 points against a candidate who made her entire campaign about resisting Donald Trump.
Similarly in Pennsylvania, where Trump won in 2024 and was shot at, every single Democrat Judge Republicans – and Trump personally — targeted for removal was reinstated by the voters. Meanwhile in Georgia – Georgia! – two Republican incumbents shockingly lost in statewide races for the Public Services commission.
There are a few possible explanations for this. 1) Trump voters don’t turn out when he is not on the ballot, which is problematic as he will never appear on another ballot ever again. 2) Trump motivates Democrats significantly more than he does Republicans even when he’s not on the ballot. Also problematic. 3) Swing voters, Black and Latino voters who voted for Trump in 2024 are not happy with how he is governing in 2025 and either switched back or stayed home or a combination of that. 4) All of the above. I think it’s 4. And Trump supporters in Vermont need to be realistic about this.
The only good news for Vermont Republicans is that they weren’t up for re-election this year, and they have a year to figure out a plan counter this trend because, oh yes, no doubt this is how VT Democrats will play their hand. Orange Man Bad, and so is every Republican.
I said Republicans had a year figure this out, but not really. More like three weeks when bills for the 2026 legislative session need to be submitted because they better have one highly compelling policy agenda that 1) really, really excites a solid majority of Vermonters even more than they hate Donald Trump. 2) Is hyper-focuses on local issues, and can hold voters’ attention on state issues. 3) Will demonstrably lower the cost and/or improve the standard of living for working people immediately. 4) All of the above.
What are such policies? I have ideas but will save them for later. Here I’ll just offer some free advice that Phil Scott supporters need to be realistic about, and it’s regarding one policy that does not come close to meeting any these criteria: Act 73, the education reform law passed last year and currently under construction for another round of voting next year. If this is your flagship accomplishment (or more likely failed attempt at accomplishing something) going into November 2026, you are… there is no polite term and the only truly accurate one I can think of begins with “f” and ends in “ed.”
Nobody likes let alone is enthusiastic about this redistricting scheme. Most who are aware of it actually hate, nay loathe, some or all of what it does – scaling back or eliminating school choice, closing rural schools, eliminating local school boards, giving up the right to vote on school budgets — and loathe, nay despise, what it doesn’t do – lower anybody’s property taxes.
As the writers over at The Liberal Patriot noted in their analysis of last night’s election results, “It’s not all that surprising that a president who campaigned on tackling inflation but has done little to tame it… faced steep backlash in the first major election of his term.” The same will be true of candidates who ran on lowering Vermonters’ property taxes, but have done little, or indeed nothing, to tame them. Jettison the legislative lemon that is Act 73 while you still can, come up with a different idea ASAP, and spend the next year relentlessly selling it to the people, or you will face a similar backlash.
Republicans, Democrats, and Progressives are all holding their Party reorganization caucuses this week. The Democrats and Progressives are both voting on resolutions to scrap Act 73, and I suspect they will pass. I also suspect that when the legislature returns in January, the Democrat and Progressive caucuses will listen and do just that, leaving Republican legislators holding this bag of politically toxic waste just in time for election season. Don’t walk into this trap!
You can mock the No Kings rallies, but the Left’s base is fired up to strike a blow against Trump. Vermont Republicans need an agenda that fires up their base every bit as much if not more if they want to hold their gains from 2024 and add to them in 2026. If your leaders aren’t thinking in those terms, good luck to the rest of ya!
