The sky is blue, water is wet, and each year, about this time, the ‘ Grok reviews NOAA’s annual hurricane predictions. It’s not that we’re overly interested in hurricanes, though you’d be hard pressed to prove otherwise. There are over 100 articles in recent years on the subject, but for a good reason. The science. Climate science. The computer models. They can barely predict next week’s weather (and quite often not even that), and the hurricane predictions are similarly flawed.
You get the idea.
Witches dancing widdershins around cauldrons filled with goat entrails are as likely to get it right as wrong, and so it is with NOAA, The Farmer’s Almanac, and just about everyone else. Despite all the things we know, we still don’t know enough, but the world has an economic interest and, arguably, a public health and infrastructure interest, and hurricanes happen and can be devastating. And you are guaranteed to miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. So, they take a shot, and so do we.
NOAAs 2025 Forecast
NOAA rates each season as normal, above normal, or below normal. Last year, as prediction accuracy goes, NOAA was above normal. Better than average might be more appropriate after screwing the ppoch in 2023. Horrible predictions. All wrong. Not even close. 2024 was better, will 2025 nail it? The Earth has a habit of making trouble, and we are still leaning into more active seasons after many drought years. Is 2025 the year the Atlantic hurricane season gets its revenge?
The 2025 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2025 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th:
- 13-19 Named Storms
- 6-10 Hurricanes
- 3-5 Major Hurricanes
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 95 to 180% of the median
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered above the 1991-2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during August-September-October (ASO), the peak months of the hurricane season.
Here is a big, beautiful graphic [larger version here if you can’t read this one]
More!
Colorado State University, where Hurricanes never land, likes to do some prognosticating of its own.
Information obtained through March indicates that the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity above the 1991–2020 average. We estimate that 2025 will have 17 named storms (average is 14.4), 85 named storm days (average is 69.4), 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 35 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 9 major hurricane days (average is 7.4).
The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above its long-period average. We predict Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2025 to be approximately 125 percent of their long-term averages.
Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.
The last paragraph is about the most honest thing you can say. It only takes one to ruin your day, so be safe out there.
As for us, we’ll be keeping track and keeping score, so check back for updates. The season begins June 1st.
May 26th 7:54 AM
