As predictions go, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season went better than usual. In recent years, Mother Earth has stymied the experts at every turn, refusing to bend the knee to their predictions. That is probably because Mother Nature doesn’t mix science with emotions or the partisan politics required to keep the grant money flowing.
Unless we’re talking about margarin, then you don’t want to mess with Mother Nature.
As for mortals on the take predicting hurricanes circa 2024:
In August, they said that we’d have 120 days during which a Named Storm was in operation. In fact, we had 77 such days. The Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) was forecast to be 240% and it was instead 189%. NTC is defined as “Average seasonal percentage mean of NS, NSD, H, HD, MH, MHD. Gives overall indication of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity.
To their credit, they came close enough on a number of hurricanes and major hurricanes but not on much else. Named storms, days, accumulated energy, and net activity were all misses.
But they are correct to suggest a rise in all of these categories. As we’ve reported more than once, the natural trends tell us that we’ve gone far too long without at least one or two difficult years.
The problem is what that looks like, given the downward trend in activity over the era of global warming hysterics. “Global Warming,” at least on paper, appears to produce fewer and fewer in intensity, making landfall. We’ve shared some of the science on that. You need a warm equator and cold northern reaches – the difference in temperature defines what the Earth does to move energy around the planet.
And the computer models don’t seem to know this, but if they did, perhaps the forecasts would be better. To be clear, we need better forecasting if it is to be of any value; otherwise, they might as well be using finger bones or goat innards to predict the future (not to insult scrying by conflating it with climate computer models).
