One of the risks of writing about hurricanes a day before the content is published is that they can form in the interim. This has happened to me before, but not so much this year. That’s odd. All the indicators suggested a knock-down drag-out storm-a-palooza of a season. It has yet to materialize only days away from September 10th, the undisputed peak day. As I write this, not only are there zero hurricanes being tracked in the Atlantic basin, but the two disturbances NOAA can bring itself to mention have a mealy 10% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.
It often begs the question: Are all your models wrong? Can they get anything right, and when does that happen most often?
We know the long range end of the world models are horrible. We also understand that the short-range models are less than reliable (look at how quickly the facts shift on the App on your mobile device). Intermediate predictions? Seasonal? The consensus from people living in the real world is that despite technological advances, there are many variables at play, short, medium, and long-range, that cause prognostications about the weather to be unreliable, so much so that it is a bad idea to allow politicians to make decisions with your money based on them. But they do. And we let them.
That needs to stop. While hurricane predictions or day-to-day weather often fail to meet expectations, the biggest bugbear is carbon dioxide, and climate cultists face fresh misery on this front.
While the IPCC acknowledges emissions from natural sources have an atmospheric residence time of only 4 years, they have simultaneously constructed model outputs that assert CO2 molecules derived from fossil fuel emissions remain in the atmosphere for hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands, even several one hundred thousands of years. …
Dr. Koutsoyiannis utilizes a well-established, hydrology-based theoretical framework (refined reservoir routing, or RRR) combined with real-world CO2 observations to robustly conclude the residence time for all CO2 molecules, regardless of origin, is between 3.5 and 4 years.
The applied theoretical results match the empirical results so closely (e.g., an empirical mean of 3.91 years vs. a theoretical mean of 3.94 years at Barrow, and an identical 3.68 years for both empirical and theoretical means at Mauna Loa from 1958-2023) that the theoretical framework can be said to be “close to perfect.” In other words, the consistency of the applied calculation with real-world observations provides robust evidence that CO2 residence time is likely close to this range.
And
In contrast, the calculated probability for the modeled, imaginary-data-based claim that the residence time for a CO2 molecule persists for over 1000 years is 10⁻⁶⁸, which means the probability value is “no different from an impossibility.”
A residence time of only 4 years for all CO2 molecules, regardless of origin, is consistent with the conclusion that nature is dominant in driving changes in CO2 concentration. Fossil fuel emissions serve only a minor role.
Your CO2 isn’t different from any other, so why would it be? This will mean nothing to the true believers or anyone milking the greenwashing machine for profit or power. But the weather isn’t the only unpredictable thing. A sudden shift in the voting habits of millions of Americans would go a long way to changing the prevailing view on climate; it just needs to be more people than they can cheat their way around.
