Neocon Nikki has momentum. Not against Trump, not yet. The Donald’s base continues to back him no matter what. That significant lead is not currently in jeopardy – like that or not. But Haley’s campaign vacuum has been sucking up DeSantis supporters, and it’s killing him.
And yes, that was a deliberate (otherwise generic) reference to see who among her Republican supporters would like to accuse me of misogyny. Please try. Seriously. I’d love ot have that debate.
And for the DeSantis folks – I like Gov Ron a lot more than Necon Nikki. I’d take DeSantis seven days a week and twice on Sunday before letting Haley sit her backside behind the Resolute desk. But the DeSantis campaign has struggled mightily after a quick start. Last March, he was ahead of Trump briefly but then collapsed. A fall that continues as we wind our way toward Iowa’s Caucus and New Hampshire’s primary. A loss of momentum that is beginning to show up in national polls.
I don’t think it’s Ron.
The DeSantis message is the same. His priorities are the same. I’ve seen him in person and watched him speak. DeSantis has a lot of good ideas, and he’s proven that with the majority behind him, he can do good things. But the campaign’s the thing, and it has failed the candidate. A much-needed shake-up was too little too late, and if he can’t or won’t go negative on Haley in the next three weeks, he will likely not survive past Super Tuesday.
For Haley supporters, and this is just my opinion – she is better than a Democrat. She appeals to the not Trump crowd. Haley is a woman, and Democrats don’t want to have to run against that. She has executive experience and international diplomacy experience, and did I mention she’s a woman? Oh, and she’s not old! Haley has a lot that appeals to people who are not paying attention. A horse that could win the big race, and the “anyone but Trump folks” are leaving Gov. Ron and lining up to support her in New Hampshire.
An interesting poll out of New Hampshire [UML Poll Here] [Topline pdf Here] shows something perhaps many expected.
President Donald Trump still dominates the field with 52% and leads in every demographic. Nikki Haley comes in second with 22%, and Ron DeSantis third with 10%. However, if you dig into the demographics of the respondents, what you discover is that Nikki Haley has gained her support from Ron DeSantis’ primary support base.
Previously DeSantis’ main support base was from wealthy, older, white males. DeSantis has now lost this base to Nikki Haley, as her demographic support shows the rich, older, white males, what you might call the country club circuit, have dumped the Florida Governor in favor of the former UN Ambassador.
The rich, older, white males now support Nikki Haley over Ron DeSantis. This explains why Haley’s gains are all DeSantis losses.
A few weeks ago, Haley’s fledgling rise in New Hampshire wasn’t translating nationally, but that has begun to change. RCP shows Haley erasing gaps with DeSantis and surpassing him in places where he had held second behind Trump for most of the year.
- Iowa (FOX): Trump 52, DeSantis 18, Haley 16, Ramaswamy 7, Christie 3, Hutchinson 0
- Iowa (Emerson): Trump 50, Haley 17, DeSantis 15, Ramaswamy 8, Christie 4, Hutchinson 0
- NH (UMASS): Trump 52, Haley 22, Christie 6, DeSantis 10, Ramaswamy 4, Hutchinson 1.
- NH (St Anselm): Trump 44, Haley 30, Christie 12, DeSantis 6, Ramaswamy 5, Hutchinson
- National (NYT): Trump 64, Haley 11, DeSantis 9, Ramaswamy 5, Christie 3, Hutchinson
- National (Yahoo!): Trump 56, DeSantis 15, Haley 10, Ramaswamy 3, Christie 1, Hutchinson 1
- National (Quinnepac): Trump 67, DeSantis 11, Haley 11, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 3, Hutchinson 0.
It’s not over until it’s over, but DeSantis needs to beat Haley in Iowa and Christie in the Granite State to remain viable. I think Christie is done by or just after Nevada or South Carolina when he will put all of his eggs in Haley’s basket. She’s a hell of a lot more GOPe than Ron, and Christie isn’t likely to campaign for the third-place guy when he was that guy and dropped out.
