A National Rassmussen poll published a few days ago has Trump at 51, Haley at 13, DeSantis at 9, Christie at 9, Ramaswamy at 1, and Hutchinson with no support. But if you listen to the establishment tools in the media, Haley is closing “the gap.”
What gap and on whom? The inference is Trump, but she’s at least 30 points behind him in New Hampshire, and the last poll out of Iowa had DeSantis in second. You can find pop-up polling or internet polling that suggests things are not as dire for her campaign as they appear, and that’s the point. There is an element of smoke and mirrors, and we get that this works (sometimes), but as Ed Mosca noted here, the most recent New Hampshire Republican primary poll includes registered Democrats, 62% of whom preferred Haley over Trump.
When I saw the poll a few days before Ed’s piece, I thought,
Isn’t the story that 62% of Democrats in the NH Republican primary poll picked Nikki Haley? Not sure that’s a positive. https://t.co/YcLXlIf1Ua
— Steve Mac Donald (@TheRealNHSteve) December 20, 2023
Some would say look, Haley is so bipartisan. My thought is quite the opposite. If she appeals that much to Democrats, why is she running as a Republican? My other more important thought (subjective as that may be) – since St Anselm’s included Democrats in a poll for a Republican primary in which they cannot vote, did the Dems not en-mass pick Trump? According to the sort of people funding Haley and DeSantis, he is the only candidate who can’t beat Biden. Trump is the guy who will inspire Dems to vote in record numbers and wipe out everyone else on the ticket.
I think the At. Anselm’s poll contradicts that notion.
It has been the practice of Democrats to change their party affiliation in New Hampshire to muddle the GOP Primary. They vote for the candidate they feel can’t beat their own. Get that one nominated, and it improves their odds. We just discussed a recent example here (in another form).
So why didn’t 62% of Democrats choose Donald Trump?
And why does the UMass poll (no Democrats) show Trump with a 30-point lead in New Hampshire while every other survey (including the pop-ups) has Haley closing that pesky gap?
Within an hour or so, ARG (American Research Group) released bare bones results showing Haley within 3 points of Trump. Folks, the coordination of messaging with the release of that poll right after the Trump +30 UMass Lowell Poll was released, is very suspect.
UMass Lowell put out crosstabs, a detailed methodology and met basic AAPOR standards of disclosure. The other did not and was pushed by Sununu-friendly media locally and anti-Trump media nationally, to include Mediate and FOX News, outlets which are ignoring the UMass Lowell Poll. …
This is very clearly intended to benefit Nikki Haley. …
Fraud and deception are the stock and trade of politics, so we should expect more of this in the weeks before Iowa and New Hampshire. And, perhaps, some of the same from the other sides. DeSantis has much to lose if Haley’s suspect polling goes unanswered, and he invested heavily in Iowa, where he’d held second place for the duration of the contest. I think he still does. But he’s struggling in the Granite State and needs to do well here to move on with any confidence.
Trump? He might want to toss a few rhetorical grenades into the relevant TV markets. Not everyone who will vote for him goes to Trump rallies or reads the glossy mailers. Haley has improved her place in the standings, and the party establishment money is lining up to give her momentum, real or imagined, and it hardly matters because if left unquestioned, one becomes the other.