You’ll have heard the “news.” Hyperbolic predictions for another El Nina summer. My past reporting, and I’m no expert, suggests there’s no discernable pattern for temperature or precipitation even as that itty-bitty trace gas, CO2, has claimed a few parts per million.
Related: There’s No Evidence Connecting CO2 and Drought (Or NOAA and Predictions)
A degree of minutia not fully understood by the masses that look like this.
Everything weather, including NOAAs politicized interpretation, is based on 3% of the 0.04% despite no evidence of a correlation. With that in mind, let’s make fun of NOAA (again), which can “predict” the Earth’s climate 30-80 years into the future but has it rough when it comes to the next few months.
After blowing the 2022 hurricane season prediction, then missing winter for the entire west and left coast (they didn’t get ours right, but they were closer), NOAA dropped their summer of El Nina forecast last month. The Northeast is expected to have above-average temps, and precipitation was a tossup.
It is early, but they have missed both so far. It has been cooler and wetter around here, not warmer and drier. The forecast for the next ten days has a lot of rain and temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s with nighttime temps in the mid-50s. That’s not an alarming difference, but it is at or below average, not at or above. The advertised hotter-than-typical weather has yet to show its face beyond two days, followed by a week of wet, cold weather.
July and August get hot around here. As for rain, we are 15% above the one-hundred-year mean for annual precipitation through May.
So, to generalize the predictive nature of the Cult, the forecast is drought, with an increased chance of flooding, and high heat, except when it’s cool. Your emissions of a trace gas (a trace amount of that trace amount) in the vast and complex system that is Earth’s atmosphere are to blame.
And even though NOAA, nor any other expert, can guess anything with certainty, we must give up modernity to appease the future they’ve predicted that we all know is junk science and hogwash.
