As we approach the July 4th Weekend, the polls that didn’t seem to mean much – or perhaps “shouldn’t be taken seriously” – are beginning to mean a lot more, and that’s a problem for Ron DeSantis. He was doing better when they didn’t appear to mean much.
DeSantis, who has been branded by some supporters as the electable Republican (in anything like a fair general election), either isn’t selling that message, or Republican Primary voters are not buying it.
A.G. Gancarski, writing at Florida Politics, recently published an update on the polling as Ron runs back to New Hampshire looking to make a dent in Donald Trump’s prodigious … polling lead.
The Race to the White House polling average shows Trump ahead of DeSantis 45% to 13% in a crowded field, with Christie at 8%, and 49% to 25% if the race were somehow just two people.
DeSantis has attempted to glow up the Granite State at the expense of Florida and its residents.
“I was born and raised in Florida, and it’s only been recently that we’ve developed a sense of state pride ourselves,” DeSantis said at a party dinner this Spring. “We’re proud to have stood up for freedom in the last few years when it wasn’t easy. We did it our own way and I’m proud of that.”
“But I must admit, we draw inspiration from the people here in New Hampshire,” DeSantis continued. “Because more than any other state, you don’t mince words when it comes to your stand on liberty. You say it very clearly: Live Free or Die.”
Trump is ahead 53-19 in California, 54-9 in West Virginia, and 43-18 in South Carolina. Nationally RCP has an NBC news poll dated June 25th with Trump up 52-22. Trump is up 59-27 in Maine, 41-25 in Wisconsin, 48-28 in Virginia, and 53-21 in Nevada, but it is well within the margin of error at 27-26 in Utah.
To get to Utah (and Super Tuesday), Ron DeSantis has to get through Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada with a lot of dead weight pulling him down. Chris Christie, Pence, Haley, and the rest of the GOP castaways. There are too many not Trump’s and only one Trump, and he has a record to run on with three unique qualities. He promised to do Republican-like things, he did the things he promised, and they worked.
He did not clean out the swamp. It cleaned him out, so there’s reason to believe that will repeat in 2024. Donald Trump also has some COVID response baggage he has yet to unpack effectively, and DeSantis has him dead to rights on that. Gov. DeSantis has done Republican-like things that worked in Florida but with a friendly Republican legislature with similar priorities. DC isn’t like that, and even with a divisive Republican majority, Trump managed to get some things done, though he could have done more if Congress had been on his side instead of either pandering to Democrat lies or hiding behind them.
Is DeSantis either of those, we don’t know, but Democrats are not afraid of their agenda, no matter how crazy. Republicans not only run from theirs, but they also use the left’s narratives to label them and anyone who promotes or defends them as extreme.
Republican primary voters like Trump’s style better.
In 2016, Trump won the GOP primary with 35%, including NH insiders, outsiders, and many new voters. His closest competitor was John Kasich, who captured 16%. Ted Cruz landed third with 11%.
In 2020 President Trump won the New Hampshire primary with 86% of the vote (after winning Iowa with 97%). His closest competitor was … William Weld, with 9%, followed by 2.3% (write-ins), primarily conscientious objectors or never-Trumpers after four years of non-stop badgering, two impeachments, and the rest of it.
DeSantis is currently 2024’s John Kasich in New Hampshire (Weld doesn’t count), but he lacks the outsider cred that four years of Biden have only made more necessary. He was a great Governor for Florida, but even with a new set of negatives, Trump’s appeal to primary voters is hard to beat.
DeSantis’s appeal among GOP primary voters is that he is not Trump. That he will not produce a down-ticket washout (or so they say). That he is the adult on the ticket to Trump’s childish name-calling antics. But that is obviously not enough to get Gov. DeSantis the nomination, and while we’ve got eight months (give or take) before the polling numbers are for delegates, it’s time to ask this question. If you won’t vote for Trump at all in 2024, would you vote for Trump – DeSantis in Nov. 2024, or is Trump so rough that even Gov. Ron can’t win him your vote over the Democrat (presumably Biden).
Note: Votes are restricted by IP Address. And yes, we know who cheated in my last poll.
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Note 2: Nothing about this post implies an endorsement of any candidate by the author or GraniteGrok.com
Added five hours after publication
Note 3: By *Republicans who *won’t vote for Trump, I mean rank-and-file voters who are not Never-Trumpers but are convinced someone else needs to be the nominee because they are fed up with The Donald’s personality.
