In a Concord Monitor Op-Ed published on July 5, 2021, I explained why the Democrats were likely to eschew New Hampshire’s First in the Nation (FITN) Primary due to identity politics.
It was an easy prediction.
Joe Biden finished fifth in the 2020 N.H. Primary balloting and left the Granite State for South Carolina while votes were still being cast. That wasn’t very generous to all of Biden’s New Hampshire supporters who worked so hard for him, only to see him bug out on them while it was still daylight on Primary Day.
And Kamala Harris received all of 129 votes that February 11th. So one wouldn’t really expect either Biden or Harris to advocate for our FITN status. And Biden clearly made a deal with South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn to pick an African* American woman as a running mate. It now appears that Biden also agreed to advocate for South Carolina to replace N.H. as the first primary state.
Nice.
The knock on New Hampshire is that it is too old and too white and doesn’t reflect America. But South Carolina’s Democrat electorate is around 60% black—which perhaps doesn’t quite reflect America either.
One might characterize the sordid saga as simply reflecting “identity politics,” which has sadly become a mainstay of Dem political calculus.
Biden’s virtue-signaling ruled out 95% of possible VP candidates due to race and gender. Ponder the egregiousness of it all. So now we have a failing and incoherent eighty-year-old president and an unpopular and incompetent vice-president. American adversaries must chortle and cheer.
However, due to state law, New Hampshire will still have the FITN—even though Democrats will supposedly stay away. But unencumbered by identity politics, Republican presidential aspirants will still campaign here, and Granite Staters will still benefit from the associated spending and media coverage. Thank you, GOP!
But what about the Dems?
Don’t be misled by Biden’s claim that he’s running for a second term. He has to say that, lest he be reduced to ineffective lame duck status before the 118th Congress even convenes. But most Dems don’t want him to run—and he won’t. By July Biden will announce his “retirement.”
It’s another easy prediction.
It’s only the latest in an endless litany of lies, exaggerations, embellishments, misstatements, and plagiarism from our craven Commander-in-Chief.
But will subsequent Dem candidates show up in New Hampshire?
Yes.
Initially, surrogates will thump tubs for Dem contenders. But the surrogate campaigns will eventually yield to the real deals visiting us.
Welcome, Gavin Newsom!
The Democrat National Committee won’t sanction delegates from a “pirate” primary. But Dem candidates will still come, thumbing their noses at Biden and the DNC. They’ll want that all-important momentum (if not delegates) going into South Carolina and Nevada. Although not all will come. Afraid of “disrespecting” the South Carolina Dem electorate, some will stay away to pay homage to identity politics. It will be interesting—and fun—to see who comes and who doesn’t and how they all spin things.
Decades from now historians may look back at this era of American politics and wonder how our country detoured down so many dead-end roads marked by baffling signposts with jargon about identity politics, gender identification, climate emergencies, open borders, and more. Hopefully by then we’ll have put divisive and poisonous identity politics behind us. Perhaps by then we’ll be electing people to important positions based on their inherent merits and ethical qualities as opposed to their gender or ethnicity.
But in the shorter term, folks around here wonder if there will be a consequential New Hampshire Presidential Primary in 2024. I say, “Yes. There will be”
And that’s yet another easy prediction!
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A retired professor and former Marine Corps officer, State Rep. Mike Moffett of Loudon chairs the House Committee on State-Federal Relations.
