I know many of you are still clinging … desperately … to the belief that New Hampshire is a Purple State, and that there are even still some diehards who would say a Red State. But it is time for you bitter-clingers to admit what is plain to see.
New Hampshire is neither a Red State nor a Purple State; New Hampshire is a Blue State … and a deep blue shade of blue at that.
NEW HAMPSHIRE IS A DEEP BLUE STATE!
If you cannot win … OR EVEN BE COMPETITIVE … in this political environment, you are NEVER going to elect REAL Republicans (as opposed to faux-Republicans like Sununu, Baker, Hogan, etc.). NEVER.
The federal races were all LANDSLIDES for the Democrats. They were not the nail-biters we are seeing in other States.
And it was not because the NHGOP fielded poor candidates. Leavitt and Bolduc were two of the best Congressional candidates that the GOP has ever fielded in New Hampshire.
There are multiple reasons they lost so badly, which I will discuss below. But the main reason is that voters in New Hampshire are ideologically markedly left of center. If New Hampshire had experienced an anomalous blue-wave last night, then Sununu would have lost by a similar margin as Leavitt and Bolduc. Instead, our intrepid Sun-King won by a similar margin as Hassan, Pappas and Kuster. And that is because ideologically he is much closer to the Democrats than to authentic Republicans like Leavitt and Bolduc.
One of the reasons that New Hampshire voters fall so left of center on the ideological scale is something I will call the COVID-effect, which merits its own section.
THE COVID-EFFECT
The hardcore COVID policies of lockdown governors such as Whitmer, Cuomo, Wolf, Baker … and our dear Sun-King … drove Red-voters to leave their States. For example, Michigan … one of the most extreme lockdown States … experienced a blue tidal wave:
It was a blue wave in Michigan as Democrats seized control of the state House, state Senate, and the positions of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general. Voters also overwhelmingly approved Proposal 2 and Proposal 3.
— Steve Neavling (@MCmuckraker) November 9, 2022
This COVID-effect is why lockdown States … which include New Hampshire … are so much bluer than they were pre-COVID and why States with freedom-Governors, such as Ron DeSantis in Florida, are so much redder.
Last night’s results indicate that these lockdown States are lost causes for the GOP. New Hampshire is a lost cause.
THE NHGOP IS INEPT
The Democrat State Party apparatus is a turnout machine. The Republican State Party apparatus is a chimera.
Rather than building an infrastructure to identify and turn out Red-voters, the NHGOP instead chose to burn its money on redundant mailers. The NHGOP’s Chairman Steve Stepanek is … and I will be as nice as possible … incompetent and lazy.
After last night’s debacle, NHGOP “leaders” should be demanding his resignation. Instead … crickets.
NO-COATTAILS SUNUNU
As of the time I am writing this, it is unclear if the GOP will retain control of the New Hampshire House. It is clear, however, that they will lose seats. The GOP apparently will retain a 14-10 majority in the Senate.
So why no Sununu coattails? My sense is that many of New Hampshire’s Blue-voters do NOT view Sununu’s ideology as Republican. Instead, he is seen … by the standards of New Hampshire’s left-of-center electorate … as a centrist.
Democrats and Independents who are not hard-hard-Left have no problem voting for him when the Democrats are running hard-hard-hard-Lefties like Tom Sherman, while Republicans vote for him because the alternative is worse.
We can see this in Merrimack. Democrats voted in large numbers for Sununu, but then returned home to vote for Hassan and Pappas.
FITN
The rationale for New Hampshire’s FITN status is the the State’s small size permits retail campaigning. The 2022 midterms, however, showed that retail campaigning no longer matters.
Don Bolduc held town halls across the State. Hassan, in contrast, eschewed any unscripted politicking and relied on a blizzard of television ads and a sycophantic press. She won in a landslide. Pappas followed a similar strategy and he too won in a landslide. The argument that FITN should go to New Hampshire to give the “little guy” a chance no longer holds water.
Additionally, a State that is as DEEP BLUE as New Hampshire obviously does NOT reflect the average GOP voter.
KAROLINE LEAVITT
Karoline Leavitt has a bright future in politics … OUTSIDE of New Hampshire. She is a natural. Easily the best New Hampshire Republican candidate I have seen in the past 35 years.
It would be a shame to waste her potential in what for Republicans is a political-wasteland. Karoline, move to Ohio or Virginia or Florida … you have a bright political future; don’t squander it in this hopelessly Blue State.
WHAT YOU CAN DO
New Hampshire is a lost cause. Move to a Red State or a Purple State. Virginia’s Shenandoah Valley is breathtaking, while Florida’s beaches are epic.
