So, is the sky falling or was coronavirus an acorn? Let’s start listing what we know. We know the best guess is about 1.4% of the U.S. population has had the coronavirus. As of Aug. 2, Johns Hopkins University had tallied nearly 4.7 million cases. That’s about 1.4% of the U.S. population.
Many COVID-19 cases go undiagnosed. So the actual number may be much higher.
It’s also worth noting that Americans aren’t alone in overestimating the extent of the pandemic in their country. The same survey found that people in the U.K., Germany, France, and Sweden also overestimated the percentage of their countrymen who had contracted the disease.
Age makes a difference
We know it is false that everyone, regardless of age, who gets the coronavirus is equally at risk of serious illness and death. The virus is a serious disease primarily for the elderly. This is especially true for those in nursing homes. As of July 25, people 65 and older account for 80% of COVID-19 deaths. They make up less than 17% of the population.
People under 45 make up 58% of the population. They account for less than 3% of coronavirus deaths. Think about that. There is a Syracuse University study where researchers set out to estimate more precisely the age-related mortality risk of coronavirus infection. The researcher states in part:
“The estimated [infection fatality rate] is close to zero for children and younger adults… but rises exponentially with age, reaching about 0.3 percent for ages 50-59, 1 percent for ages 60-69, 4 percent for ages 70-79, and 24 percent for ages 80 and above.”
We know that according to Syracuse University researchers, a person under 45 involved in an accidental injury is three times more likely to die than a person in that same age group who contracts COVID-19. The study compares the relative risks of death from accidental injury and infection with the coronavirus. Its authors estimate that people under 45 who have an accidental injury caused by something other than an automobile accident have 0.03% of dying from that injury, compared with a 0.01% (1 in 10,000) chance of dying if they contract COVID-19. Those in that age group who are involved in traffic accidents face a similar 1-in-10,000 risk of death.