The November numbers are in; the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that New Hampshire’s unemployment rate is at 3.2%, which compares favorably to the reported national unemployment rate of 5.0%. (See the BLS chart below.) Normally, both of those numbers would be something for us to cheer about, or at the very least, we should feel confident that the recession is truly over. Sadly, we all know that neither of those unemployment numbers, no matter how often they are repeated, is even close to the truth.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5. | 4.9 |
| 2006 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| 2007 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| 2008 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 7.3 |
| 2009 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| 2010 | 9. | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| 2011 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| 2012 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.9 |
| 2013 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.7 |
| 2014 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| 2015 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
The citizenry of New Hampshire might not have at their disposal a cadre of statisticians crunching and massaging the employment numbers, but we do have eyeballs. Here’s what I see when I make my twice-daily trip in to Keene, the largest city in the Monadnock region:
People *are* working—but mostly on the various road construction and road repair jobs around and leading in to the city. As we know, these are temporary jobs, funded by local and federal government dollars. A recovering economy is not built on these type of jobs. What is needed are long-term, permanent positions. Those aren’t so easily identified, but that doesn’t stop me from looking.
Here’s what I’ve been seeing, over the last 24 months: Shaw’s grocery store closed about two years ago. I don’t know the exact employment numbers for such a large store, but I’m guessing upwards of a hundred jobs were lost. Then the Sylvan Learning Center in the plaza across the street from Shaw’s closed; not a huge deal, but still a closure. Kohl’s opened on the other side of town—great–and recently an Aldi’s discount grocery store moved in next door to Kohl’s. Since Aldi’s business model is built upon very low overhead costs, (meaning that only a few employees are needed to operate the small store), it is a very far cry from being a replacement for a full size grocery store like Shaw’s.
Keene was fortunate to have a Jersey Mike’s sandwich shop open up in the same plaza as the shuttered Shaw’s, but this summer we’ve lost Burger King, Pizza Hut, Olive Garden, Party City, two pizza/pub-style restaurants, a small non-chain sandwich shop, and an independent video store. Just this past month, a second small sandwich shop in the downtown area closed down. I was really sad to see the video store close, but fortunately, another (chain) video store out of Maine has moved into the spot. I’m hoping they do well, but we will see.
Last month, a Convenient Care emergency care center opened across from the shuttered Pizza Hut, so that is a gain, however small.
Taken in total, though, it seems as though we’ve lost more than we’ve gained.
I suppose that what strikes me as odd is the fact that according to the numbers, New Hampshire is supposedly doing better—36% better–than the average national unemployment numbers, yet we’re still losing businesses that normally fare well even under poor economic conditions. Chain businesses like full-size grocery stores, fast food restaurants, and inexpensive sit-down restaurants normally do fine, or at least survive. But they aren’t, even here, at a 3.2% unemployment rate.
It just doesn’t add up.
The anecdotal evidence is irrefutable.