A booming, and initially perceived, oddity emanated from the White House like a streaking tie-dyed progressive woman jaunting across the south lawn with the vapors after having just caught a glimpse of The One standing in the Rose Garden doing…well… nothing as usual, but closer inspection reveals the tie-dyed streaking woman was just Chris Matthews in drag, and there’s nothing odd about him getting the vapors for The One, nor would it be a surprise catching him in drag.
So it was when the White House released this oddity yesterday, “…today’s employment report provides further evidence that the U.S. economy is continuing to recover…” and that “the unemployment rate fell from 7.7 percent in February to 7.6 percent in March”. It said “recover”! Well, all right man, grab your top hat, your cigarette holder, inflate your ego and let’s start in on “Happy Days Are Here Again”, ready? One, Two, Three…
Not so fast. Here comes the odd part.
Elsewhere yesterday it was reported from others what ZeroHedge.com headlined as “People Not In Labor Force Soar By 663,000 To 90 Million, Labor Force Participation Rate At 1979 Levels“.
1979 levels!? Recall that year’s booming economic impact on the American map adorning it with long draping metallic colored lines of cars stretching from gas station into the roads, avenues, streets and boulevards. Ahh, Democrat policies at work for you, memories… Anyway, onward, err Forward, as Stalin would say (I know it’s a little unorthodox to reference Stalin, but I think it’s appropriate in the age of O. It’s kind of like a reminder of eras past and where they lead. Also they are similar in a lot of ways.).
Both the White House numbers and the bleak ZeroHedge headlines are true, but that’s not good news. The statements appearing good with unemployment low are illusory. As with peaking under Chris Matthew’s skirt will do, it won’t reveal much but will definitely imbue the investigator with a clearer understanding of issue.
So when we peek into the unemployment numbers we realize that when the Labor Force Participation Rate is reduced, by definition unemployment falls because people included in the Labor Force are either employed or looking for work.
From the BLS, “The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. ” Unemployment is Persons that “…do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work…” or “were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been temporarily laid off …”.
So, if either of those two drop from a previous estimate it’s either because: A. people are no longer employed and are not looking for work, or B. people were not employed in the previous estimate but were looking for work and now are no longer doing so. If you’re not employed and not looking for a job, you don’t exist in the Labor Force Participation Rate– though you still do in real life, don’t worry, you don’t just disappear.
For a glimpse of where we are in the history of the Labor Force Participation Rate take a look at the Joker-esque red frown on the Labor Force Participation Rate graph. I’d like call out the precipitous droop near the right end of the x-axis (That’s the bottom one for you public school survivors. It’s not meant as an insult, it’s just a little help; I’m a recovering public school attendee as well). That’s the Obama droop. It’s kind of like a frown with the left side of the face experiencing serious palsy– from now on it’ll be known as the Obama Bell-Palsy Employment Curve.
This is only the beginning of his four more years. I say Obama will Bell-Palsy droop the employment past 1978 levels. Heck he’s almost there, and he’s just getting started. Wait until the un-affordable Healthcare Act kicks in. It’ll be goodbye 1970’s, hello 1930s! Four more years! Four more years!