There’s one email thread I’m on that is very active right now and at times, I feel like I’m General Custer surrounded by the Indians from a politics standpoint – and all the arrows are pointing at me. Especially when even the appearance of not “believing” is the signal for raised eyebrows. The question:
If you want to forestall a 3rd party spoiler, whom do you think will do that? The GOP nominating Romney, or enough GOP folks realizing that a Paul presidency, no matter how much they dislike him, would still be better than a second Obama term? The Paul supporters won’t jump to Romney no matter what the GOP does… will the Romney folks vote GOP if it’s Paul?
My doodling back was:
Polls, I think, are starting to give guidance, but only just now that the first voting is just a month away. I think most folks that support other candidates would vote for Paul, be he the nominee, simply because of ABO (“Anyone But Obama”), but the reverse will not be true. I have great fears that, if Ron is not the nominee, his supporters will sit it out. Especially true if the nominee turns out to be Romney but I don’t think that Newt is any great shake for them either.
In effect, that will be the invisible third party (the non-voters, formerly known as Ron Paul supporters). In this vein of third party thinking, Johnson and Roemer won’t even show up as a blip as they go out of the Republican Party; Ron is the tsunami (or the obvious disappearance of one, depending on your view point).
No, I don’t think that as Gary Johnson goes Libertarian and Buddy Roemer hedges his bet with AmericaElect would influence the overall vote outcome but a Ron Paul refusal to stay within the Republican Party would.
Developing
