Well, I got home late last nite and stayed up to get the video of Rick Perry up before going to bed (again, apologies for "the shakes" with the FlipCam, but again, I wasn’t anticipating getting any video in the first place). Thus, I slept in late and missed the actual announcement of Gov. Tim Pawlenty on This Week (again, DVRd and watching it now) pulling out of the Presidential Follies.
The Winnowing has begun. As it should and as it must.
Even as we were waiting for Perry to speak, people were wondering "hey, any news out of the Ames straw poll?" I kept scanning the news and finally on Real Clear Politics, found the results:
- Bachmann – 4,823 votes
- Paul – 4,671 votes
- Pawlenty – 2,293 votes
- Santorum – 1,657 votes
- Cain – 1,456 votes
- Perry – 718 votes
- Romney – 567 votes
- Gingrich – 385 votes
- Huntsman – 49 votes
- McCotter – 35 votes
Conventional wisdom said that TPaw was the best organized and expected to do well – he had to, given the low polling results all over even though he has been at work, diligently, at campaigning. No less than a third place, so he met that specification. But the other part of the specification was that the third place had to be close, real close, to the second place person.
This wasn’t it. Combine that with his poor playground spitting match with Bachmann on Thursday nite (he might have been better served by resurrecting the Obaneycare attack on Romney instead of, keeping with the old school playground meme, picking on a girl – but he failed to do it). Add in Rick Perry‘s launch yesterday, it spelled doom.
His fellow hard worker, Rick Santorum, placed where he should have given his polling but not reflective, either, of the work he has been doing. As opposed to TPaw, and if you rightfully forgive him of his complaint of no time in the beginning, he did much better in this debate. I think, therefore, the debate aided him. And I think his line on the convicted vs the innocent baby will hold up with social conservatives.
Sidenote: I believe that Newt Gingrich succeeded in the debate with the best line of the night where he explained the danger of encroaching Shariah law with the Time Square bomber’s explanation to a stunned judge who had asked "You swore an oath to the United States" – "I am your enemy. I lied" and thus succeeded where Herman Cain hadn’t quite explained it as well.
At the same time, many that I talked to last night were surprised at Ron Paul‘s second place finish. I was not as those that support him have not diminished in their fervor for him but have advanced from being well organized in answering online polls to doing well in physical world polls.
So, where do we sit? Here’s my take on the race (but not for the Groksters as a whole, as a couple of my co-bloggers have gone hard core for specific candidates):
Shot at the Title (the Nomination):
- Rick Perry (until he shows that he is not)
- Michelle Bachmann (she shot to the top tier in the polls, has TEA Party roots, and won)
- Mitt Romney (conventional wisdom)
- Sarah Palin (Newt said that he would run an unconventional campaign – who says that she hasn’t been all along?)
Along for the Ride (outside shot, still not sure how good of a shot):
- Ron Paul (doing better, but has his ideas become mainstream enough?)
- Herman Cain (he has said that he’s in until the end)
- Rick Santorum (working hard but has to find more traction somehow)
Shooting blanks:
- Thaddeus McCotter (nice guy, I like him personally, and he’s SMART. But lacking in an essential quality, charisma, that his Red Eye clout can’t make up for)
- Newt Gingrich (great in debates, so I hope he sticks around. But exploding his campaign start has reduced him to a Tom Tancredo of the last election – no shot, but can have an influence on the issues).
- Jon Huntsman (while switching from wooing independents to win to moving more Right, he can spend a lot of money but when will "bad investment" show up on his signs).
- Andy Martin (pretty much a NH gadfly – the road to the WH is not via being opposed to the Northern Pass. And suing people makes no friends either – that’s just being a jerk).
