by Patrick Hynes
There is evidence that Sen. Joe Biden’s presence on the Democratic presidential ticket has done Sen. Obama no favors among Catholic voters. And yet Andrew Kohut from the Pew Research Center argues that
“There is a tendency … to exaggerate the role religion has on voter behavior.”
What’s the deal?
Kohut errs when he speaks in such broad strokes about religion. For example, despite a six year propaganda effort on the part of progressive evangelicals and the mainstream media, white evangelicals support Sen. McCain over Sen. Obama by roughly similar margins to those President Bush enjoyed over Sen. Kerry. Going to church on Sunday still rivals owning a gun as a determinant to whether you will vote Republican.
To the extent Kohut is referring only to Catholic voters however, he has a point. There is an open debate whether there really is anything we can accurately call “the Catholic vote.” Geographic and ethnic diversity make is nearly impossible to measure “how Catholics vote.” We simply cannot lump white Catholics of Eastern European extraction with Mexican-Americans. In fact, Latino Catholics who are several generations removed from their ancestral homelands vote differently from Latino Catholics who are only one or two generations removed (they are more apt to vote Republican).
Almost a decade ago Deal Hudson identified a key subgroup of Catholic voters: White Catholics who attend Mass regularly. Among this group—sadly, a minority of American Catholics—Republicans have demonstrated some limited appeal—Bush won them in 2000 and 2004, but they swung toward Democrats in the 2006 congressional elections. It is too early to tell how they will vote on November 4th, 2008. One thing is for sure, though: When Sen. Biden misrepresents Catholic thinking—as he has on the issue of abortion and on social doctrine—he drives many of these voters back to the GOP.
Next week Sen. Obama will launch a “Faith Tour.” Considering his eloquence and genuine interest in matters of faith, his tour will no doubt have some highlights. But the subtitle of the tour–“Voting ALL Our Values”—ensures there will be some lowlights, as well. Democrats persist in making two mistakes that routinely draw skepticism from Christian voters. The first is to insist that all value systems are equal, an idea committed Christians reject. The second is to lecture Christians that their worldview is too narrow. The slogan “Voting ALL Our Values” appears to embody both of these.
UPDATE: Instances such as this hurt Democrats among Christians, as well. Apparently, Broward County Democrats used the invocation of their monthly meeting to mock Gov. Sarah Palin in God’s name. Really shameful stuff.
[This piece was originally posted here, and is used with permission of its author.]
Patrick Hynes is the founder and proprietor of Ankle Biting Pundits. A long time Republican operative and consultant, Patrick has helped hundreds of Republicans win public office. National Journal described Patrick as “a hack with a pretty good record of electing Republicans.” The American Conservative called Patrick, “an expert on evangelical voting patterns.” And Campaigns & Elections named Patrick a “Rising Star in American Politics.” Patrick is the author of the book In Defense of the Religious Right (Nelson Current).