Most underestimate school expendituresOPINION:
A supermajority of New Hampshire voters wants property tax relief to come from local spending restraint, not from higher aid, finds a new Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy poll conducted by the St. Anselm College Survey Center.
State House and Senate candidates in both major political parties are promising to lower property taxes if elected. To find out whether voters had a preference for how their property taxes might be lowered, we tested the following question:
“To address rising property taxes, would you prefer that local governments control their spending, or that the state increase taxes and distribute the additional revenue to local cities and towns?”
A supermajority of voters (64%) preferred local spending restraint vs. 23% who said they preferred that the state increase taxes and distribute the additional revenue to cities and towns. Another 13% said they were unsure.
By party registration, controlling spending had the support of 88% of Republicans, 66% of undeclared voters and 38% of Democrats. By ideology, controlling spending had the support of 88% of conservatives, 57% of moderates and 40% of liberals.
Breaking down the ideological divide even further, the poll found that support for tax increases and revenue redistribution to local governments is concentrated on the far left of the political spectrum.
Tax increases and cash redistributions to towns and cities had the support of only 1% of very conservative voters, 5% of somewhat conservative voters, 21% of moderates and 35% of somewhat liberal voters. But among those calling themselves “very liberal,” 61% supported tax hikes and redistribution, with only 24% in opposition.
“New Hampshire voters want their property tax relief to come through belt tightening at the local level, not tax increases at the state level,” Josiah Bartlett Center President Andrew Cline said. “Except for the far left, everyone wants spending restraint, not tax increases.”
Support for the school district tax cap
The cap on school district revenue increases that is on November’s ballot is broadly popular, 57% of voters supporting it, 32% saying they oppose it, and 13% saying they are unsure. The St. Anselm College Survey Center released the results for this question with its political poll last week.
The cap had majority support among Republicans (83%) and undeclared voters (56%) as well as conservative (80%) and moderate (50%) voters. Less than 1/3 of Democrats (31%) and liberals (32%) supported the cap.
A deeper dive into the numbers shows that the cap has a stronger chance of passing than it might first appear.
To pass, the cap needs the approval of 3/5 of votes cast. The Office of Attorney General on Oct. 21 released guidance explaining that only “yes” or “no” votes are counted when deciding whether the 3/5 threshold is met. Ballots with the question left blank or with both options filled in are not counted. Applying this method to the poll responses, so only the “yes” or “no” responses are counted and the “unsure” responses are excluded, the cap’s support hits 64%, which is higher than the 60% threshold needed for passage at the school district level.
Most voters underestimate what school districts spend per student
Because the tax cap addresses public school district spending, we were curious to see whether voters knew how much money school districts spend on average in New Hampshire. Not even 1/3 of voters do.
On average, New Hampshire public school districts spend $22,699 per student in operating expenses and $27,689 when all expenses are included, according to the state Education Department. Asked how much they thought the average was, within $10,000, nearly 3/5 of voters (59%) underestimated what districts spend.
Forty-three percent of voters thought the average per-pupil spending fell between $10,000-$20,000, 16% thought it fell below $10,000 and 7% thought it was more than $30,000. Only 31% correctly put the figure at between $20,000-$30,000.
For conservatives and liberals, at least 40% of responses thought the average per-pupil expenditure was between $10,000-$20,000. Moderates were more likely to pick the correct range of $20,000-$30,000, and they had the highest percentage of respondents (41%) pick that answer.
Very conservative (11%) and somewhat conservative (10%) voters were the least likely to think schools spent less than $10,000 per student, and very conservative voters (14%) were the most likely to think that school districts spent more than $30,000 (which 35 districts do).
Very liberal (26%) and somewhat liberal (21%) voters were the most likely to think that districts on average spent less than $10,000 per student. That was the most wrong answer, since no school district in the state has an average per-pupil expenditure in that range. The district with the lowest per-pupil spending is Auburn, at $14,653. These voters also were the least likely (very liberal, 3%; somewhat liberal, 5%) to think that school districts spend more than $30,000 per student, which 35 districts do do.
Asked if they would change their position on the tax cap after learning how much the average district spent, Republicans were most likely to say yes.
Among voters who opposed the cap, 79% said they’d still oppose the cap after learning how much school districts spent per pupil, with 10% no longer opposed and 10% unsure. By party, 80% of Democrats and 84% of undeclared voters said they would still oppose the tax cap. But among Republicans, 56% said they’d still oppose the cap, with 4% saying they’d support it and 37% switching from opposed to unsure. By ideology, moderate voters also showed a willingness to reconsider their position, with 25% saying they no longer supported the cap.
The poll of 1,672 New Hampshire likely voters was conducted Oct. 19-20 by the St. Anselm College Survey Center. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 2.4% with a confidence interval of 95%.
The complete results for these poll questions can be found here. JBC October 2026 Tax Cap.
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