Granite Staters are often told that our low taxes are a liability and that copying the other New England states’ higher-tax, higher-spending model would improve affordability and the overall quality of life. New polling from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center suggests that the exact opposite is true.
A series of UNH surveys released this week show that New Hampshire has by far the smallest percentage of residents who say they are likely to move out of state in the next five years.
Only 23% of Granite Staters say they’re likely to leave, vs 34% in Massachusetts, 35% in Rhode Island, 40% in Connecticut and 42% in Vermont. (Maine was not polled.)
When asked to name their top reasons for wanting to leave, residents in all of the other states cited the same top three reasons in the same order:
- Cheaper housing or cost of living
- Lower taxes
- Different political or social environment.
Among the small percentage of Granite Staters who are considering leaving in the next five years, the top three reasons were:
- Cheaper housing or cost of living
- Different political or social environment
- New adventure or more excitement
For likely Granite State movers, taxes ranked sixth, below “starting a new job” and “want a different climate or weather.”
The other New England states are driving their residents away for the same reasons, and those reasons are political in nature.
High New England housing prices are a direct result of local government policies that limit the supply of housing. The post-COVID spike in demand has helped to drive up prices even further, but the regional housing shortage goes back decades and is tied to government restrictions on residential construction.
The surge in inflation since the COVID-19 pandemic was also substantially driven by government policies, particularly federal spending and monetary policy, and more recently tariffs. State and local governments also push the cost of living higher through high taxes and regulations. As we pointed out this spring, the state with the lowest gas taxes in the region—New Hampshire—also has the lowest gas prices.
Seeking a “different political or social climate” is also a choice triggered by politics.
New Hampshire also has the highest percentage of residents who say they’ll definitely not leave.
Granite Staters are often told that higher taxes are needed to finance more robust social services and wealth transfers, with the goal of lowering costs for residents. But the UNH poll shows that the other New England states, where taxes and government spending are much higher than in New Hampshire, have significantly higher percentages of residents citing affordability as a motivating factor in moving.
Among residents who say they’re considering moving out of state, more than 60% in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont cite cheaper housing or cost of living as the No. 1 motive. In New Hampshire, 55% do.
If higher taxes and spending brought down the cost of living, we would expect to see those numbers reversed.
The tax question really gives the game away. At least half of potential movers in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont cite taxes as their No. 2 reason for wanting to move. In Rhode Island, 44% do. Residents in those states clearly don’t associate high taxes with affordability.
In New Hampshire, only 21% of potential movers cite taxes as a reason to leave, and that reason ranks sixth, not second, as in the other New England states.
Among Granite Staters who are considering moving, the No. 3 reason given is “new adventure or more excitement.”
This suggests that nearly 30% of people who say they want to leave New Hampshire are being pulled away by good old American wanderlust, rather than driven out by bad policies or a hostile political or social environment at home.
In the other New England states, the top factors cited as reasons for wanting to leave are all negative local conditions.
Generally speaking, New Hampshire is doing a better job than all other New England states of attracting new residents. U.S. Census Bureau data show that New Hampshire has had the largest percentage population growth in New England since 2000.
Because the UNH Survey Center uses a different polling methodology than most other pollsters, it’s worth noting that other research has found even more striking results.
A Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll last month found that 54% of Massachusetts residents have considered moving out of state in the last year, with 26.2% saying they’ve seriously considered it.
That poll found that 40.2% of residents cited the cost of living as a primary reason to move, with 18.45% citing taxes.
