The Lakes Region Porcupines meet at the New Hong Kong Buffet in Belmont, NH every third Saturday of the month, and this Saturday ONE of the big topics was the despicable act by a brilliant but sick, demented, mentally ill person. Now, these folks are rather Libertarian to full bore Libertarians (heh! I seem to be the token Conservative) and just about all of them fully support the Second Amendment – and some open carry all the time. I have a concealed carry permit and I believe several others do as well so it was logical that the topic of the murders in the Aurora, Colorado would come up.
Some were insistent that if someone had been carrying (open or concealed) in that theater, some of those that died or were hurt could have been saved. I was the only dissenter in that if you looked at the environment and looked at how the shooter, James Holmes, had equipped himself, it would be unclear. A dark theater, a deranged shooter who was in rapid fire mode wearing complete body armor (ballistic helmet, body armor including throat and groin protection) who also had thrown two “grenades” that emitted a noxious gas that affected breathing and sight (not sure exactly what as I haven’t seen or heard the details, but it could have been tear gas or pepper spray cannisters – or something homebrewed). Mass confusion – people screaming, moving to get out; unless someone was a trained SWAT or Spec Ops operator used to working and reacting PROPERLY in such a situation, I’m not convinced if a single person would have been able to make a difference.
Before I started shooting, I used to think “that can’t be THAT difficult, right?” Aim it at a target couple hundred feet, pull the trigger. Shooting a target with a handgun, if you have not done so, is HARD – and starting out, being consistent at 5 or 10 yards is much harder than I ever thought. Further out, and you learn that just a wee bit of a tremble in your hands, your stance, your finger pulling the trigger ALSO putting a sideways “push or pull” on the handgun, anticipating the recoil ahead of the shot, having bad eyes (like me); well, let’s just say that this is a high skill technique to do it well over and over.
Now add in a Red Bull can of adrenaline when you realize the horror of what is going on, your eyes are tearing up from the chemical agent, trying to avoid getting shot yourself – this is not an easy shot just at a unprotected person trying kill you but with the body armor the spots that are vulnerable become exceedingly small.
And he’s moving.
I’ll admit – with the conceal pistol I have, unless I am just about next to and behind the person, I probably do not have the skill to take down a fully body-armored person with just “iron sights”. Better with a laser on it, but for ME, it still would very difficult. A trained marksman that shoots quite often and hundreds (if not thousands) of rounds / bullets each time – perhaps. That is not, however, an argument against me carrying for here is the important point – how OFTEN does a scenario like Aurora actually happen? Stats actually say it is rather rare (admittedly, no small solace if you are caught in such a scenario).
The other guys were saying “but if MORE people were carrying” – well, in a “regular” sized theater (whatever that is), what is the percentage of folks that would be carrying? Figure 300 people – maybe 5? Is that enough? Maybe a few more – 10? It probably would be a good guess that it would not be 50. Would that be enough to knock someone like Holmes down quickly? Maybe. Maybe not. Hard shot to take, harder shot to make, especially with lots of unarmed folks moving as well. And most folks who carry KNOW this – they practice a lot (compared to most) and they know that as soon as that casing hits the floor, there’s not just the fire fight but a legal fight. They are NOT going to fire unless they absolutely HAVE to. They understand that this is not a video game in which a RESET button is going to bring somebody back from the dead.
And is 10 people enough is warn off someone committed to doing murder? This was not random violence – this was planned out months in advance. In fact, in listening the the Police Chief, the rig he was wearing was ALMOST the same as what the SWAT folks did – but with just a couple of items out of place (which was recognized) – he was hoping that in the chaos, he would have been able to slip away (but for the sharp eyed cops on the scene). And the set up in his apartment was sophisticated as well.
And if Holmes had not going with firearms but with explosives instead (as what was in his apartment), you could have 3/4’s of the audience carrying and if the explosive was set up a la an IED, no amount of ‘friendly guns” would have mattered.
I just don’t know.
