The Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove Donald Trump from that state’s Republican primary ballot has sparked quite a bit of outrage, as it should have.
Two state courts had already rejected the notion that the 14th Amendment provision of the US Constitution barring anyone who engaged in insurrection from holding office applies here because, quite frankly, it’s absurd. Here’s what Section 3 says:
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
This was put in place to deal with former members of the Confederate military and government following the Civil War. Donald Trump, love him or hate him, did not lead an army, or even a part of one, in armed rebellion against the United States or try to establish another nation. Moreover — small detail — he was formally acquitted of “incitement of insurrection” by his second impeachment trial. So, there’s that.
As such, and in addition to being patently absurd on its face, the Colorado ruling raises its own constitutional issues regarding the 5th Amendment’s right to due process. The US Supreme Court is almost certain to laugh this ruling out of their chambers as they strike it down.
Democrats know this isn’t going anywhere. So, what’s the point? There are several, none of which has to do with keeping Trump off any ballot.
Trump supporters are quick to assume that the Democrats are so deranged by their hatred of the 45th president that they’ll do anything to stop him, even barring him from running. Actually, I think the opposite is true. The Democrats see their best chance to win in November 2024 – not just the presidency but in down-ticket races as well — is if Trump is the Republican nominee. What we have learned over the past half-decade is that Trump is a bigger motivating factor for Democrats – voters and donors alike – than he is for Republicans. Democrats are not about to give that up. Their worst nightmare, at this point, is if Nikki Haley somehow managed to pull off a primary victory.
While many – almost all — polls show Trump beating Biden today, mostly those polls are within the margin of error. Trump loses to a “generic Democrat” by 8 points (i.e… someone other than Biden, and, anticipating another chess move, I personally don’t think Biden will be the ultimate nominee). Haley, on the other hand, is crushing Biden by double digits.
From the Democrats’ perspective, Haley would be able to make the historical case for being the first female president, negating Democrats’ advantage among women. She is a minority, throwing a wrench into their “Republicans are racist” mantra. She’s not Trump, which undermines their “Democracy is under threat from insurrectionists” campaign theme. And Haley plays well in the suburbs, where Republicans have been struggling in recent cycles.
If another presidential candidate such as Haley were to emerge to take the Trump factors off the board for Democrats, and a ten-plus percentage point popular blowout victory by a Republican became plausible, this would send ripples through congressional and senatorial races nationwide. Under such a scenario, Republicans would be sure to solidify their hold on the House and win back the Senate. This is what the Colorado move is designed to prevent.
Haley is gaining momentum in Iowa, is especially gaining in New Hampshire, and after those two primaries, the contest goes to her home state of South Carolina. If Trump somehow loses those first three states, or even the latter two, the shock of it would create an opening for Haley to parley that momentum into a Super Tuesday win. Still a long shot, but it would be an opening, and the Democrats aren’t taking any chances.
The Colorado move, therefore, by design: A) Sucks up all the media oxygen and public attention away from the primary states and Trump’s surging challenger and puts the spotlight back on Trump where the Democrats want it. B) Creates a “rally around Trump” effect within the Republican voter base, again blunting Haley’s ability to make inroads. And C) sets up a future line of attack to rally Democrat voters against the “conservative” US Supreme Court. After SCOTUS inevitably overrules Colorado, look for the Democrats to let loose a broadside accusing the conservative court – especially Trump’s appointees — of “deciding the election.” AKA – Democracy is under threat!
In chess, this would be akin to a gambit sacrificing a piece to gain a stronger, overall strategic position heading into the end game. Will the move work? Will Republicans take the bait? How will Republicans counter? Time will tell.