Howard Dean made news the other day when he reminded Vermonters he was still alive. The dude is bumping up against the actuarial tables at 76, after all, and anyone born the last year Dean held public office is now of legal age to drink, which would come in handy if the increasingly radicalized Leftist activist returned to power.
Nevertheless, Vermont Democrats, not seeming to relish the thought of Brenda Siegal II, Here We Go Again! are all abuzz with excitement that the old Doc is ready to come out of retirement to take on, well, the most popular governor in the United States. Heeeeyaaaaaa!
I, too, am excited! Dean will get his butt kicked, which will be fun to watch and reason enough to attaboy this decision. But more importantly, as a well-funded, big-name headliner, he will force Phil Scott to campaign. For real.
I’ve heard some pundits on the Republican side worry that if Phil has a race, it could take money away from down-ticket candidates for the state House and Senate. To this, I reply, what money? If anything, a race that forces Phil Scott to raise and spend, organize a ground game to get out the vote, and loudly make a case for why Vermonters should elect Republicans (cough, cough 14% property tax increase… 70 cent carbon tax on heating fuel… unaffordable housing costs…) it will benefit down-ticket Republicans who, let’s face it, don’t raise a whole lot of cash on their own anyway, and could really use the coattails of a Phil Scott funded campaign infrastructure.
Howard Dean, on the other hand, might excite in-state Democrat donors with enough (false) hope of knocking off the otherwise immortal Scott to the point where they pour their money into his (losing) campaign at the expense of their own down-ticket candidates. Democrats already have, hat tip to ‘em, a solid machine. They don’t need Dean’s help there.
Dean, of course, has the kind of Rolodex that can attract a lot of out-of-state money, but Vermont already sees quite a bit of left-wing cash pouring into our state through activist groups with national ties. There might be more of it as a result of a Dean candidacy, but given the laws of diminishing returns, it won’t dramatically change the political landscape.
On the other hand, Scott hasn’t needed out-of-state money since his first run for governor, and since then, it hasn’t come in. That will change if Dean is the challenger. The RGA and other PACs will ramp up activity in the Green Mountain State, and that could be a game changer. When I chaired the VTGOP during the 2008 election, Governor Jim Douglas secured half a million dollars for the Party to assist in down-ticket races because he knew high turnout in local races would boost his own vote totals in what was shaping up to be a Blue Wave year – and he was thinking about his ability to sustain a veto. (Yes, Phil, if you’re reading, that’s a suggestion, not just an entertaining little anecdote!)
Make no mistake, Vermont Democrats will outspend Republicans in 2024 by wide margins, but an activated, motivated, supercharged Phil Scott campaign has the potential to better – not even, but better – the odds for underdog down-ticket Republicans. It changes the dynamic from fighting something with nothing to fighting something with something. So, go for it, Howard!
In a good sign, Phil Scott announced he will be attending the VTGOP convention on May 18th. Scott has kept his distance from state party events, and hopefully this is an olive branch he’s offering to his more conservative detractors (of which I often count myself as one before considering the sobering alternatives) recognizing that he does in fact need the Party — and more House and Senate Republicans – if he wants his popularity to translate into relevancy.
The big question is, will Scott’s intraparty critics accept the olive branch and welcome home the prodigal son? I certainly hope so. If the United States and the Soviet Union could put aside their differences long enough to defeat the Nazis, the conservative and moderate wings of the VTGOP should be able to come together for six months to take on Vermont Progressive Democrat Supermajority before they tax and regulate us out of our homes. Priorities, people. Priorities.
