A January 14th poll on the Iowa caucus had Trump in the lead with 55% of the vote. Haley was 21, DeSantis at 15, Ramaswamy at 5, Christie (dropped out), and Hutchinson at 2%. Iowans caucused last night and declared their choice for the Republican Nominee.
Trump won with 51% of the vote, DeSantis managed to secure second with 21%, Haley coming in third at 19%. Vivek, failing to do better than 4th place, announced his withdrawal from the race after only attracting 8% of the vote.
Ramaswamy endorsed Trump on his way out of the race Monday night, and the two were already closely ideologically aligned. According to an average of recent polls that asked Republican primary voters their second choice for president, a plurality — 42 percent — of Ramaswamy supporters nationwide said Trump.
It was a similar story in New Hampshire, where an average of 39 percent of Ramaswamy voters said Trump was their second choice.
Ramaswamy has also endorsed Trump.
That might make a difference in New Hampshire, where St Anselm’s latest poll (1/12/24) has Trump at 45, Haley at 31, Christie at 9, DeSantis at 6, and Ramaswamy at 6. There is always some debate about these polls, but if this one is accurate, Haley could scoop up Christie’s voters and come up with five theoretical points, but Trump could likewise get Vivek’s.
Given the influence of independents in the New Hampshire primary – who can choose to vote on either party ballot – the thinking is that this is why Haley is doing so well or will. The Independents helped to keep Sununu in office for four terms, and he is a ruling-class RINO machine politician like Haley. It is not a stretch to suggest she might win New Hampshire, given the collapse of DeSantis and the departure of every other anyone-but-Trump candidate.
It is a three-person race on paper, but after Iowa, it might only be two. Desantis did not meet expectations, not even close, and Haley appears likely to crush DeSantis in New Hampshire, not that this drama matters much to Trump. The most recent national polls have Trump/Haley at 69/12, a fifty-seven-point lead for the former president. While a close shave in the Granite State might help Haley attract more anyone but Trump fence-sitters (and that is a thing), she has a very big hill to climb but plenty of establishment money to attempt it.
Still, Mr. Trump’s lock on the nomination continues to be his to lose.
Tune In
We haven’t advertised this much yet, but the ‘Grok and The 603 Alliance will be on Radio Row in Manchester in the lead-up to New Hampshire’s First in the Nation Primary. We’ve got local and national guests lined up (in-person and phone interviews), and despite some last-minute wrangling, we appear to be ready to roll, assuming the equipment or the folks running it (me, for example) don’t run into trouble.
At present, we intend to stream to the ‘Grok Twitter feed as Musk’s X has made it about as easy as you can get. Facebook, too, I suspect – also relatively easy to set up. I’ll announce the final digital destinations as soon as I know they are working, which might be Sunday morning before we start. The interviews and commentary will commence on January 21st from 9 am to 5 pm and continue again on Monday and Tuesday, same bat time, same bat channel.
If you happen to be in the DoubleTree in Manchester, come find us!
