Chris Christie and Americans for Prosperity are spending a lot of money in New Hampshire to convince voters that Trump can’t beat Biden. So, how is that working out? Not well, at least not yet. Trump is still on top with 39%, followed by Ramaswamy at 13%.
Nikki Haley landed third with 12 points in the UNH poll, with Christie rolling in fourth(11 points); Ron DeSantis is disappointing at 10%.
With four more months and then some to move the needle, this is not the end, but the DeSantis folks must be concerned. What looked like a neck-in-neck race early on (he was even ahead six months ago) has devolved into a nearly complete collapse in the Granite State. Since March, when Governor Ron was leading Donald Trump, he’s lost 33 points.
Trump is nowhere near his peak, so he may want to watch out for the new kid. Vivek has been persistent and bold. He’s got PACs running good, hard-hitting, no-nonsense ads in New Hampshire (that I actually like), and this is the time for that.
Vivek was nobody in March when DeSantis was at 43% but is now ahead of people with better national name recognition (Mike Pence is pathetic at 2%). So, Ramaswamy is (at the very least) tied for second place, accounting for the margin. That’s impressive. (Iowa has him fourth behind Trump, DeSantis and Haley. Vivek has ranked second or third in a few national polls).
And please don’t construe that as an endorsement, which is a persistent problem when discussing candidates in races. Last month, I endured a rather tiring email thread over several days with someone who claimed GraniteGrok (I will leave out the vulgar language and insults) was a bunch of Trump fanatics. Even after pointing out that our writers can write about whomever they like, however, they want, and that this is not an endorsement by anyone else or GraniteGrok, they persisted.
Right up until I insisted, they provided some evidence (links in this campaign cycle) showing how I (personally) was a Total Trump Homer. I never heard from them again. That may mean they are busy compiling evidence, but I get a sense that the argument was less compelling once sobriety weighed in. And they had spent a lot of time complaining about how crass and rude Trump is while browbeating us with insults and vulgar language. I found the absence of self-awareness amusing.
It was a DeSantis supporter, so this post won’t help.
I will admit to this. Donald Trump is far more interesting a candidate than anyone else running. Our readers are more likely to respond to posts about him. And yes, that’s why many folks feel he can’t “beat” Biden. He is polarizing. But the Left fears him more than anyone, and that means something to Republican Primary voters, even in fickle New Hampshire, where they may be realizing that he sells the message better and has receipts. He’s far from perfect. I’d like to hear more about cutting spending and opposing pandemic planners and their ilk. But he has tried to stand between us and them (the government).
That’s not common.
Nearly every Republican politician says it. Few do it once elected or do it for very long, but it is what Republican Primary voters seek, now more than ever, and it all shows up in the poll.
69% of those polled are sticking with Trump no matter what.
Ramaswamy has a very impressive 31% of those polled who have decided to vote for him, which means he’s built a fan base in the Granite State on which to build.
There is some good news for DeSantis. he is the overall best second pick of the litter in this poll.
And some more bad news for former NJ Governor Chris Christie. Sixty percent of those polled would never vote for him not even if he brought donuts.
Mike Pence didn’t fare well, with 42% refusing to choose him, with Donald Trump untouchable by 30% of the polled Republican primary voters. That’s a lot and instructive. 69% have decided on Trump, while 30% have decided against Trump. If Trump wins the general, it is safe to say that one of the ways the AFP prediction comes true is if 30% of Republicans let the Democrat win rather than choose Trump.
Aren’t the people who say they won’t vote for Trump many of the same folks who have always told everyone else to hold their noses and vote for whatever spinless RINO piece of trash the party puts up?
Just another thought among many.