The dirty secret of politicizing employment numbers is that you can get to zero unemployment. If the labor force participation rate is zero, so is unemployment. Everyone who wants a job (no one) has it. Ta-da! Record Low™
That’s how the numbers game works, so consider that as you wade through the preliminary release from New Hampshire’s Office of Employment Security.
First, the Granite State’s economy is in good shape, and employment overall is excellent, but the seasonally adjusted 1.7% July unemployment rate you’ll be hearing much about – if you’ve not already – has a few strings attached.
Seasonally adjusted estimates for July 2023 placed the number of employed residents at 747,200, a decrease of 1,760 from the previous month and a decrease of 2,570 from July 2022. The number of unemployed residents decreased by 360 over-the-month to 13,100. This was 6,430 fewer unemployed than in July 2022. From June 2023 to July 2023, the total labor force decreased by 2,120 to 760,300. This was a decrease of 9,000 New Hampshire residents from July 2022.
1,760 fewer people in the Granite State had jobs in July compared to June, while people without jobs who were identified as unemployed declined by 360 from June. Sounds strange, yes, but it was an improvement of 6,430 from the year before.
And 2,120 fewer people looked for work in July compared to June, but a year ago, that number was much higher.
What does it all mean?
Not a lot, unless you are looking for work and can’t find something you like.
In contrast, in October 2019, NH’s labor force peaked at 784,414. The March 2020 lockdowns dropped it to 747,950, a difference of 25,822. Employment declined from 753,809 to 628,133, a difference of 125,676 for a government-forced unemployment rate of 16%.
747,200 employed is still 6,809 fewer than in March 2019 before the two weeks to hide mandates and 37,214 less than the labor force peak in October of 2019.
The number of folks employed in July 2023 is estimated at 698,000, but the adjusted unemployment rate is 0.9% “Better” than the accompanying 2.6% pre-pandemic number.
See what I’m saying?
Keep that in mind as pols and pundits take 1.7% out for a victory lap, and remember, it’s not just them. Every other state and the Feds do the same thing every chance they get, but without context, it doesn’t mean a damn thing.
Now, non-seasonally adjusted NH employment for July 2023 is probably around 740,000, with the workforce closer to 760,000, which looks better, but again, what does it mean?
Whatever they need it to mean, and the NH economy is doing better. Employers are looking for more employees. Starting part-time rates are often over 15.00/hour for unskilled labor and 20+ if you have some skills. But the labor force isn’t cooperating.
The number can or could be a lot better and actually be better.
HT | NHES
