NOAA Predicted Above Average Hurricane Season so How's That Working Out? - Granite Grok

NOAA Predicted Above Average Hurricane Season so How’s That Working Out?

Ocean blue sky original Photo by Dave Hoefler on Unsplash

In May, NOAA declared from its now mostly political perch that the 2022 Hurricane Season (June 1 to November) would  result in “above-average hurricane activity this year.” It’s mid-August, nearly halfway into the “season,” and the shelf life of that prediction clock is ticking.

 

 NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

 

We’ve had three named storms so far, with only one of them rising to the level of newsworthy, except for the lack of any news. There was a bit of wind and rain but nothing to write Al Gore or Michael Mann about, so the season (so far) has been a bust. Not above normal in number or intensity, and quite the opposite.

And the current forecast is very quiet (as of this writing – the link has real-time updates).

 

Current NOAA HUrrican outlook 8-12-2022

 

Being from New England, we know this doesn’t necessarily mean much. As the old saying goes, if you don’t like the weather wait a few minutes. And so it is with the global climate and the hurricane season. It is a product of forces in many places, none of which has a thing to do with fossil fuels, SUVs, or your comfortable western lifestyle.

It can and should change.

And the prediction business is big business. Numerous industries pay top dollar for forecasters to provide projections because what happens affects their ability to operate. Meanwhile, NOAA is doing it on the taxpayer’s dime, but if this indicates how accurate they are, it’s good to be wrong in the right direction. A habit the CLimate cult can seem to drop.

They’ve been predicting doom for four decades and have yet to get anything right. Why should this be any different?

 

 

 

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