Vermont had a Primary yesterday. Governor, US House, and US Senate. And we’re happy (we think) to report a surprise victory. Gerald Malloy, the guy who ran as a conservative Republican for US Senate, beat the squishy moderate RINO candidate with 43% of the vote.
We covered this race once, on Sunday.
Peter Welch will be the Democrat primary winner for the open US Senate in Vermont. He is a Democrat Machine politician, big government, big spending, and more federal intrusion. Very popular on the Left.
Meanwhile, on the “right.”
Is the likely Republican primary voter in Vermont going to show up and vote for an actual Republican? Will the “independents” go with the third-way progressive republican or vie for something different and choose Malloy?
If they do, Malloy could pull off the upset primary win. If not, they’ll get Nolan, who will probably vote the right way on meaningless legislation and the wrong way on the important stuff. And that is assuming a majority of Vermonters don’t take the real Democrat in November.
So, how’d I do? Better than average. Welch crushed his Democrat opponents as expected, winning 87.4% of the vote in yesterday’s primary. I nailed that one. And enough “Republicans” “came out” for Malloy, so I’ll take a partial credit there, and here’s why. This is Vermont. It probably doesn’t matter.
Welch got 86,525 votes out of just over 90,000 on that side. The entire Republican primary ticket got about 28,000 votes. If that’s the best the GOP can do in a contested primary while Dems roll in close to 100K, stick a fork in the general election, I think it’s done.
Or is it?
As I said here yesterday,
The outcome of elections is never inevitable, less so when one side can lock out observers or pretend boxes, suitcases, or trucks full of ballots appearing in the middle of the night is not suspicious. But this November does not look good for team blue.
There are a lot of voters who don’t show up for primaries who will vote in the General. These are folks battered by inflation, high energy costs from local and national policy, shortages, and general malaise. So, the winds are blowing in Malloy’s direction and this may be the only chance the GOP has to take that VT seat.
Will the RNC invest in a Senate race like this in a state like Vermont? I don’t see it.
The Democrat-occupied US Senate seat up for grabs in NH is more winnable. Maggie Hassan is in trouble, pouring money into ads almost non stop trying to frame herself as a fiscally responsible moderate. Not true, but perception is what it is if there isn’t any pushback.
I have not seen that much pushback (we’ve done some here), but the national party, among others, say they will invest in that race. That’s the word on the street.
So, any left for Malloy?
We’ll have to wait and see, but my gut tells me Gerald will have to duke it out with the DNC’s ATM himself. And will the Left pony up bonus bucks for what should be an easy win?
Even just one 6-year term with a Republican Senator from Vermont could be a massive problem for the Lefty agenda, so while it should be a ‘gimme’ for Dems, they can’t ignore the political weather. I think they could go deep early and see where the polling takes them. If it’s not close, they’ll spend some and leave it up to issue advocacy groups to paint the picture they want voters to see.
If it’s close, they’ll have to commit serious cash.
My thought? I’m sticking with it won’t be close, but I hope it is. Nothing could be as fun as a Red Wave that robs the Left of a Senate seat in Vermont.
