Will one percent be enough to make a point?
While one point may not seem like much, two factors should be considered here. A solid lead was had and lost by the Democrats, which is obvious. However, not so obvious is the fact that Democrats tend to speak louder about their voting habits than Republicans do, possibly putting Republicans even higher than the Rasmussen poll indicates.
I don’t have it in front of me but Democrats polled said they were more likely to tell a pollster (or anyone else for that matter) how they would vote than Republican or Independents. Somewhere between 60-70 percent of Democrats are part of that group, where less than 50% of either Republicans or undeclared voters would share their intentions.
This detail has a significant impact on the validity of polls, something I discussed with statistician Dr. Matt Briggs before the 2016 elections. President Ronald Reagan was smeared by the press much like Trump and voters who wanted to try Reagan’s ideas kept their powder dry. Reagan won. Trump Won. And in 2016 Trump won despite having a well-funded Republican faction opposing him.
So back to my “point.”
The Democrats loss of momentum is significant. The polling, even the polls that favor them, do not favor them by much. When midnight rolls around on the East Coast will we see images of teary-eyed liberals despondent at being rejected again by the American people?
I still don’t know the answer. I do know that if Democrats squeak out enough wins to actually retake the US House Republicans won’t be teary-eyed or scrounging for some external scape-goat like Russian Collussion. We’ll blame Republicans as we should.
I do know this. Anything short of a Blue Wave will be a huge loss of opportunity for the Left. Their messaging power is unmatched with the entertainment/media industrial complex behind them. They’ve got the Universities, Public Education, Unions, Antifa storm-troopers, and their own leading lights promising incivility and consequences for those that dare to oppose them. Which is why a majority of Undeclared voters and Republicans won’t tell anyone who they will vote for today.
That’s a very important “point” and it should not be dismissed because on those terms if turnout is high they are probably showing up to vote Republican.
And turnout is high, at least from everyone I’ve heard from in New Hampshire today.
Image credit: http://www.ichaps.org/