As the First in the Nation New Hampshire primary approaches both Christie (Tough guy friend of the second amendment-not!) and Kasich (prince of light and hope) have been appearing to climb but a new WMUR/CNN poll just beat those narratives into submission. Not only are they both stuck at or back down to 6%, their favorability is in decline, and their unfavorability is on the rise.
According to WMUR/CNN,
Donald Trump continues to top the field in New Hampshire with 34% of likely Republican primary voters supporting him. Trump is followed by Cruz (14%), Rubio (10%), Bush (10%), Paul (6%), Christie (6%), Kasich (6%), Fiorina (4%), Carson (3%), and Huckabee (1%). All other potential candidates receive less than 1% support, and 6% say they are undecided. Trump (41%) and Cruz (34%) are the leading candidates among primary voters who regularly listen to conservative talk radio. Trump (24%), Rubio (19%) and Bush (17%) are the top choices among primary voters who regularly read the Union Leader.
Did you catch that?
UL endorsed Christie but WMUR poll shows their readers prefer Trump (24%), Rubio (19%) and Bush (17%). #NHpolitics https://t.co/zRiMh2Vmnt
— Steve Mac Donald (@TheRealNHSteve) January 21, 2016
That’s almost as funny as Trump coming in first with Union Leader’s readers despite (or because of?) the little spat with McQuaid and company.
Disregarding that, this poll looks a lot like every other poll, everywhere else. Trump has a commanding hold on first with Cruz in second (with the exception of Iowa), and then everyone else fighting for third or worse. How that might resolve itself could be gleaned from the next bit of polling data: favorability.
This chart breaks out the voters by talk radio listeners (people who probably pay the most attention) and then all other Republicans.
Regular listeners of conservative talk radio make up approximately 20% of the Republic primary electorate and they have significantly different views of the candidates than do non-listeners. Among regular conservative talk radio listeners, Cruz (+74%) is the most popular candidate, followed by Trump (+44%) and Rubio (+34%). But among the rest of GOP primary voters, Rubio has a +25% net favorability rating while Cruz (+12%) and Trump (+6%) are significantly less popular. Candidates like Bush (-48%), Kasich (-31%), and Christie (-17%) are very unpopular among talk radio listeners, while all three are somewhat more liked among the rest of GOP primary voters.
Here is another graphic on this from the same report.
Kasich’s everyday Republican numbers are sliding and Christie’s are in the toilet, falling 23 points in one month. Too many shiny mailers, perhaps? Just enough by his opponents? Maybe no one but his fan-base is buying the pro-second amendment shtick?
I think we can explain Kasich’s “sudden tumble.”
https://twitter.com/ella_nilsen/status/690203363519152128
Whatever the reasons, Cruz is the only candidate in either group (in this poll) to experience any meaningful improvement in favorability. Does it matter come election day? Will it matter given Trump’s apparent grip on the lead? Do either of those matter if Cruz wins Iowa or takes second in New Hampshire?
It will matter to all the candidates, including Trump, but mostly to Rubio, Christie, Kasich, and the rest of the castaways. They need a good showing in New Hampshire and not just in crap polls designed to create momentum that clearly–based on the WMUR reporting–isn’t there. This poll dumps cold water on both the Kasich and Christie “rising” narratives, bad news for both, this close to the actual primary.
There’s plenty more to chew on in this poll. Take a look and add your own thoughts.
