Tropical Depression Could Hit Outer Banks Hard on July 4th

by
Steve MacDonald

Joe Bastardi at Watts up With That

We are faced with a potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend. I already have this as an 80 knot storm by July 4th, right on top of the North Carolina coast. That represents the mid ground of a fear this can be stronger. The post Sunday on Weatherbell.com on this outlined why.

Again this warm seawater is a product of the natural cyclical function of the AMO in its mature stage.

 

NOAA

000
WTNT31 KNHC 010840
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY
WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

 

Author

  • Steve MacDonald

    Steve is a long-time New Hampshire resident, blogger, and a member of the Board of directors of The 603 Alliance. He is the owner of Grok Media LLC and the Managing Editor of GraniteGrok.com, a former board member of the Republican Liberty Caucus of New Hampshire, and a past contributor to the Franklin Center for Public Policy.

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