Joe Bastardi at Watts up With That
We are faced with a potential nightmare.. a tropical cyclone coming at the outer banks on the July 4 weekend. I already have this as an 80 knot storm by July 4th, right on top of the North Carolina coast. That represents the mid ground of a fear this can be stronger. The post Sunday on Weatherbell.com on this outlined why.
Again this warm seawater is a product of the natural cyclical function of the AMO in its mature stage.
NOAA 000 WTNT31 KNHC 010840 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ... DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TODAY. RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
