I hit the polls early this morning, arriving at 7:15, and the traffic in and out was steady, even brisk. No long lines, and the presentation of ID posed no problems.
I also ran into Lenette Peterson, Jeanine Notter, Chris Buda (Local GOP Chair), George Markwell (Merrimack School Board), saw a few other folks as well, and then while getting gas overheard two people talking about how they had already voted while I was paying way too much to put gas into my car. I think turnout will be exceptional for a primary.
I guess the the next question is…who do I think is going to win?
Substance aside, there are realities to the process that come into play. For example, I like both Rick Parent and Dennis Lamare, but neither of them is running a financed campaign. Without money heading into Wednesday, and a lot of it, they have no chance in hell of winning a General election. While a majority of voters will not have observed this unpleasant truth, I have a suspicion that enough folks will get the sense of it and vote for the incumbents.
That is not to say that there is no purpose to the primary. A solid showing by either can, could (should) send a message to our sitting congressman. The message is that you are on a short leash and your future is not guaranteed.
Moving to the governors race, I expect Lamontagne and Hassan to win their respective contests. Smith has come on strong but name recognition is his worst enemy. And while I’d be content with either as the GOP nominee, Ovide has been working the granite a lot longer and that advantage will carry him to November.
As for the Democrat, Maggie Cilley Hassan, having roped the endorsement of the beloved, disbarred, cheating, impeached perjurer and accused rapist Bill Clinton, I expect that she will have ample opportunity to beat Republicans with a bat until November. That and the simple fact that even Democrats know that lying about not wanting a broad based tax gives them better odds than refusing to lie about wanting a broad based tax. The left will choose the liar who was endorsed by a liar, rather than suffer likely defeat at the feet of a candidate who is so disconnected from the voting population that they think they can win by running (not against Hassan) but against the promise to not pilfer peoples wages if elected. Even Democrats don’t want to be taxed themselves, no matter what they tell you.
In the State Senate I have aspiration for a few candidates. I think Dwyer/Bragdon will be too close for the current Senate Presidents comfort and that there is a potential upset in the offing. Dan did, however, hurt himself early by being absent from key events and failing to complete surveys. The memberships of these groups are sometimes like fickle monarchs who demand tithing in exchange for indulgences. Failing to appear or never submitting a survey can contribute to your missing the finish line, but Dwyer should have Merrimack locked up. If he gets good turnout and local support Bragdon will have a hard time overcoming that. Toss-up, leaning toward Dwyer because of Merrimack, and hey–I did endorse him.
In Bedford, I endorsed Andy Sanborn. I endorsed him early, and again yesterday on Bedford Patch, though I did not appear to get any front page treatment. I am not offended. I have a blog. But Jim Forsythe endorsed Andy at Bedford Patch. The Bedford Taxpayers association endorsed him there as well, and Andy is a fierce campaigner with a youthful energy and grasp of the big picture in Concord that is hard to compete with. Ken Hawkins has some problems, the least of which was shifting into smear mode. A good smear is not a bad idea if it can be exercised with facts and tactics, but if you have not adequately grasped your own potential negatives all you are doing is inviting retaliation and that is what he got.
Without going negative he was in trouble, with it Hawkins can’t pull out the win.
In other races I have my fingers crossed that the state wide effort to educate Republican voters about the voting records of the incumbent RINO’s clinging to political power will bear fresh fruit. As always, a few will defintiely get the boot, a trend that has been in process since at least 2006, and I encourage the RINO losers to run as independents or moderate Democrats next time around, but their ilk is ill prepared for such an abrupt departure from the rush they get at playing politics; most if not all deposed RINO’s will run embarrassingly pathetic write-in campaigns in protest of the electorates kicking them to the curb. It is my earnest hope that all of them are reduced to such sad ends. In Merrimack, the SEIU – endorsed Kathy Stroud was the biggest target, but she had more signs up than almost anyone. No idea if she did any leg work, but I have crossed my fingers in hopes that she gets primaired out. If not, she’s better than almost any Democrat…almost.
There are first-time firefighters running in several races as Republicans. Without exception they are all Democrats, planted by the Professional Fire-Fighters Association and local Democrat committees, to vote labor issues exclusively, and for very little else. Do not vote for them. It’s not worth the risk.
Elsewhere, I am rooting for all the solid liberty Republicans we have endorsed. No time to rattle them all off, you’ve seen their names on these pages. I offer my prayers and wishes to them in their effort and thank them for the time they have given to the process. May they be successful and continue their quest all the way to November and beyond.
One final point. Given a contested Democrat Primary for Governor, this may be one of the few times when we will not see too much dilution of the GOP primary by Democrats, and…can get a look at the amount of Republican as well as independent interest in either party ballots. A surge in Republican voting will be the product of undeclared voters expressing an interest in the GOP ticket. Likewise if Democrat. Larger total numbers on one side or the other could be a bellwether for the November election, regardless of who wins what primary.
That could tell us which way the state will go up and down the ticket.
