Guest-post by Robert Jursik:
It has been more than a month since the last flake of confetti fell from the ceilings at November 2nd’s victory celebrations. But while potential presidential candidates relax in their homes and study New Hampshire’s road maps, politics in the Granite State is very much in business and turns the focus to party chairmanships.
For Republicans, the immediate interest is to find a successor to Chairman Gov. John Sununu, whose retirement is widely presumed to be imminent. During his tenure as the head of New Hampshire’s GOP, Sununu presided over one of the most spectacularly successful election cycles in our state’s history. To whom does the party now go to produce a second act?
Let us begin with the obvious: the success of 2010 cannot be repeated. Republican victories this year resulted from an unprecedented harmonic convergence of circumstances that will not be valid two years from now. The dismal economy will likely improve, perhaps not to "boom" levels but enough for a sitting president and his Democrat fellow travelers to attempt to claim credit, no matter how unjustified. Many Republicans won races in traditionally Democrat precincts; some contraction with those seats must be expected. Presidential candidates will be stumping everywhere in New Hampshire, straining the ability of activists to devote time and attention to other campaigns. There are always unanticipated conditions, issues and personalities that will affect the results. It is asking too much for the next party chairman to preside over a 2012 version of this year’s landslide.
Nonetheless, one important factor will still be valid in 2012, and will require significant consideration – the Tea Party. Never before in the history of this country has a grass roots political movement garnered the appeal of so much of the citizenry so quickly. Its phenomenal impact has re-written the tired rules of etiquette for winning campaigns and ignited the voters’ latent natural preference for small, limited government. In November, the Tea Party movement’s fingerprints could be found most frequently in the multitude of State House and Senate conservative campaigns that tasted victory – especially those candidates who had never run for any office before. Its influence was also especially keen in the triumph of Frank Guinta in CD-1. Charlie Bass conscientiously avoids allegiance with the Tea Party, but it is doubtful that his 2% edge over Anne McLane Kuster in CD-2 would have materialized without Tea Party favorite, Jennifer Horn aggressively campaigning for him after the primary.
However, it is when the electoral franchise is widened that we see the Tea Party’s one stubborn deficiency. In statewide races – Governor and US Senate – the democrat was able to win in the former while the non-Tea Party-aligned Republican succeeded in the latter. The lesson is clear: the movement has the strength to nudge smaller, more localized campaigns to victory but lacks the larger-scale organization necessary for grander results. For instance, a presidential campaign exclusively relying on Tea Party activism would likely fail. Under that rationale, it becomes imperative for the Partiers to concentrate expressly on gaining more representation and leverage within the state GOP leadership. It should be obvious that they can expect no warm welcome from the Democrats, and that a reckless attempt at third-party status would sentence the movement to decades of political exile. Only within the GOP can the Tea Party have its best, quickest opportunity to seize the state-wide organization needed for bigger triumphs. Electing a Tea Party-friendly chairman thus becomes an obligation.
If Union Leader correspondent, John DiStaso’s instincts are correct (and they typically are), several names are already being discussed. In his December 2nd column, DiStaso identifies four possible candidates but scrutinizes two in particular: John Sununu’s son, James and two-time US Congressional candidate Jennifer Horn. If the formula just described is accurate – and acknowledging the possible additional candidacies of Cheshire county’s Juliana Bergeron and Derry’s Jim Foley – it would be Horn who would enter the dialogue with a certain advantage: obvious name-recognition coupled with a sterling identification with the reformist agenda of the Tea Party. A glance at the New Hampshire legislature – adorned now with the ascensions of Bill O’Brien as House Speaker, DJ Bettencourt as House Majority Leader and Peter Bragdon as Senate President – demonstrates conclusively the party’s readiness for mainstream, unapologetic conservative leadership. Horn’s credentials in that respect are unassailable, and it therefore becomes incumbent on the other challengers to highlight similar qualifications in their resumes. Time will tell if they do – but until then, Jennifer Horn enters carrying the Tea Party’s banner and at the head of the ballot.
Decades have passed with the GOP chairman’s election drawing nary a glance from the general public. The Tea Party has changed that forever, proving that this revolution is not only growing. It is learning.