New Hampshire’s 2nd Congressional District’s Republican primary has come and gone, ending in a miserable win by RINO Charlie Bass.
Charlie’s record, despite how he campaigned (when he actually did), shows him to be a moderate Republican, who voted for a ton of government spending, supported an increased role of government in our lives, and harbors a major conflict of interest regarding our nation’s energy policies. In fact, all signs point to him focusing heavily on energy-related bills, pushing to pass laws that favor his biomass industry interests. We should watch this very, very closely.
Let’s take a closer look at the primary results numbers. The final percentage of votes received was:
- Bass (42.48%)
- Horn (35.38%)
- Giuda (17.24%)
- Reilly (2.72%)
- Sonner (1.84)
- 0.34% scatter.
Horn trailed Bass by 4,589 votes (-7.1%). Giuda received 11,145 votes.
As predicted, Bob Giuda and Jennifer Horn split the conservative vote. Nobody expected this to be an even split (and it was not), but the possibility for it to give Bass the nomination was very real, and it did occur. Charlie won his 1994 Republican nomination in the very same fashion, with two additional Conservatives splitting that election’s votes.
Without Bob Giuda, Jennifer Horn clearly wins this primary. Some argue that even if Giuda dropped out, Horn would not have received all of his votes. I beg to differ, but, if you take that at face value, she only needed to secure about 41% of Giuda’s votes to beat Bass. Doing this would not have been difficult.
Yet, if you can believe it, it gets worse…
None of this ever had to happen, even if Giuda did stay in the race (although, if he dropped out, all of this would be moot).
A few people have been commenting about a phenomenon that I considered a while ago, but never took seriously. According to this blog post (and here at #2), Bob Giuda appears to have done VERY well in towns within earshot of the 1st Congressional District. Normally, that would not be worth mentioning, but when that district has a very popular candidate named Frank “Guinta”, it raises my antenna.
The question I ask is: “were voters confused between Giuda and Guinta?” After making a thousand or so phone calls in support of Jennifer Horn, I know that many, many people thought she and Kelly Ayotte were challengers, which was definitely not the case. Anyone who was paying attention knew that Kelly and Jennifer were not in the same race but, apparently, not many people were. So, is it possible that people thought they were voting for Frank, when they were actually voting for Bob? Very possible. Let’s look at the data:
- Giuda’s top-5 towns were: Salem, Hudson, Amherst, Windham, Atkinson.
- All of these towns/wards touch the first district and have plenty of exposure to “Frank Guinta” signs, and his $500,000 in radio and TV advertising.
- 14 of Bob Giuda’s top-20 towns (by votes received) are first district border towns.
Does this circumstantially reveal that a number of voters were confused, voting for Frank Guinta? We can never know for sure, but, statistically, I think it does.
What could be worse than this? Well, if you look at the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s website, you see that EVEN HE misspelled Giuda’s name, substituting “Guinta”, in the heading of the results spreadsheet
(Note: This error was corrected recently. I called the SOS office, to be sure that the ballots were correct – which they were – see a copy of the original, unedited, PDF here).
If this little Freudian error doesn’t make the case, nothing will; People, even in the SOS office, were confused by the two names.
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For months, I had been trying to convince Giuda supporters, and Bob Giuda himself, to drop out of the race, throwing their support to Jennifer, all in the name of keeping Charlie Bass out of Congress, putting a true conservative into the seat. This current conservative awakening, alive and kicking since Obama took office, fueled stronger by the unconstitutional healthcare law, needs conservatives to win as many races as possible, maintaining the momentum. Regardless of which candidate they supported, all conservatives agreed that Charlie Bass, with his moderate history, would not be the best option for New Hampshire, especially in 2010; he would be a disappointing setback for the progress of the smaller-government mentality taking hold across the country.
I based my suggestion that Giuda drop out on, polling data, fundraising numbers, various straw polls, and anecdotal evidence, found in a numerous news stories and blog entries. Giuda had been a virtual unknown, and was largely ignored, even through July, only garnering a net-1% favorability in name recognition. He raised so little money that he needed to loan his campaign $115,000 to make anything happen. Based on all of this, I predicted a <10% showing for him in the primary.
Giuda and his supporters responded to my suggestions with indignation and angry haughtiness. They showed no signs of comprehending that Bob would never be able to pass Jennifer, much less beat Charlie. In fact, they often foolishly insisted that "Jennifer should drop out, giving Bob the chance to win". They appeared to be completely blind to the reality of the situation. I say “good for them”, for sticking to their candidate. I also say, “bad for them” for not taking the life-preserver, when offered. Fools.
Other people who had worked with Bob Giuda in the NH House, or had a personal connection, also failed to see things pragmatically, or act as such. Primary elections tend to be this way, which I understand, but I fail to see how or why these well-informed people could not put their personal relationships aside, and do what needed doing. From my angle, only this group, Bob’s peers, could have made the convincing case for him to back out, for the good of the Conservative movement; yet they stood silent, whispering encouragement into his ear. Such a wasted opportunity.
I wonder how these people feel, now that Charlie has won the primary. I suppose it may be naïve for me to assume that they are completely heartbroken. It all seems like politics as usual. I wonder how they’ll feel if Charlie loses to Anne Kuster?
What was going through Bob Giuda’s mind during the primary? Did he so foolishly misread what an average observer, such as I, was able to see? Or, was he just so emotionally vested in himself, and his campaign, that he could not see anything outside of it?
Unfortunately, these two scenarios are probably not the likely ones, as Bob Giuda is not so foolish. He may be a bit of a narcissist, but he clearly knew that he was not going to win this. My suspicion is that he either (1) made a deal with the Devil (Charlie) to stay in the race, reciprocation forthcoming, or (2) he simply could not face the inevitability of a woman, worse, a “well-intentioned Mother” with “no legislative experience”, beating him in a race.
Based on misogynist comments and attitudes made by Bob, and seen by many throughout the race, the latter is more likely case. Yet, we should watch his relationship with Charlie very closely. With Bob’s “vast legislative experience”, I expect that some sort of quid-pro-quo took place along the trail, and that things have to settle down a bit before Charlie pays up. Unfortunately, it is the nature of the political beast.
At one of the debates, it became clear that Bob’s message was off the rails, as he began making statements against Jennifer’s core positions, attack-mode style. Statements against Term Limits, Across-the-Board Cuts, and Repealing Obamacare, all became pillars of Bob’s oscillating message, purposely contrary to Jennifer’s positions. In another debate, Bob used Charlie’s “Bob, I agree with you” comment in a goofy video production, as an attempt to generate public support, as though Charlie had endorsed him (if this had happened between two other candidates, the fur would have begun flying, yet we heard nothing about it).
So far, all of this is just a political story, about a sightless candidate (and his over-zealous disciples) who couldn’t imagine losing to a woman, and in the process, capitulated to a stodgy, yet dangerous RINO with a personal mission – all so he could sleep better at night. That’s the purest definition of betrayal to principles that I can imagine – personal satisfaction, over the good of the com
munity.
The whole outcome of this race made me nauseous. However, the fact that Bob Giuda may have received an unexpectedly high 17% of the vote, because of voter name confusion – helping to push Charlie Bass over the top – makes me completely ill.
At the Republican Unity Breakfast, the day after the primary, a number of people overheard Charlie Bass saying, “Thank You Bob, I could not have won this race without you in it.” Charlie was correct. As he said it, Bob Giuda had that familiar, smug, impudent look on his face.
I say, “shame on you” to Bob Giuda, for putting yourself above the good of the community. I say the same to those of you who supported Bob, even though you knew it was the wrong direction to take and that it was a losing battle – using whatever thin political cover you chose. Lastly, I say “shame on you too”, if you are now blindly supporting Charlie Bass, for the good of “the Party”. Supporting Charlie is not what it’s going to take to make this party good again.
Take a good, hard look at what has happened here: If you supported Giuda, you should be hoping and praying that Charlie can beat Ann McLane Kuster, but I’m not sure he can. Given Charlie’s overwhelmingly consistent liberal-to-moderate record, I’m really not sure we’d be that much worse off. I suspect Kuster is going to have a field day with Charlie’s Bush-era connection.
If you think this is sour grapes, it is not. I am deadly serious about the direction of our country, and of our State. I am not content with just any Republican winning. My expectations are much higher than that, and I believe that I am not alone, by any stretch. This is not so much about Jennifer Horn losing the primary, as it is about principle, and the lack thereof in Bob Giuda, and the unacceptable political record of Charlie Bass.
It should be clear that I am not on the Charlie Bass bandwagon, for reasons of principle. I stand by the same principles that I stood for in the primary, and Charlie Bass doesn’t fit my standard. After what happened, it will take a major miracle for me to put a little black mark next to his name in November.
Charlie has not earned this nomination. For the second time, it has been given to him.
I also think that Bob Giuda should pay a serious political penance, but, based on what I saw in this primary, I doubt he ever will. Shame on all of us.
