Two days ago we reported President Trump’s announcement that the US formally recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel with not much if any analysis. But I did include this quote from Mr. Trump’s remarks.
“It is time to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel,” Mr. Trump said at the White House. “It is the right thing to do.”
The US passed the resolution approving the move during the Clinton administration, but no president since has had the balls to make it official. They all pandered to the idea of the “peace process.” But Pete Ingemi over at DaTech Guy blog has some thoughts on why “it’s time.”
Since the 1970’s the Arab nations have held their control over oil prices over our head as a club to restrain us from serious opposition. Their ability to increase energy prices and hurt the US economy has been a factor for presidents from Nixon to Clinton to consider. Only a massive attack like 9/11 was enough to override those considerations and act.
However the Fracking booms has changed the equation.
Pete is correct. Fracking has changed the relationship. U.S. frackers have taken the teeth out of the Middle East Oil Emirates. Threats or production drops over unpopular policy decisions are virtually meaningless to the US. And that absence of dependency has global implications for allies (or potential allies) as well. Many of whom are mucking about in the growing shadow of Iran. A place they do not want to be.
That brings us to Pete’s second point.
Fracking takes away the ability of the Arabs to muscle us but the rise of Iran and the advancement of the Iranian nuclear program (ironically aided by the Obama administration) has suddenly given states like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others completely dependent on the US (and Israel) to keep Iran in check.
As none of them are willing or even able to hold off Iran on their own the US and Israel can name their price for that protection.
Iran’s pursuit of regional hegemony works in Mr. Trump’s favor. The Shia Sunni split can and probably will keep the Arab mumblings about Jerusalem to a minimum, as will Mr. Trump’s strong stand against Iran and Iran’s support of the militias that claim to be supporting the Palestinian “cause.”
The militias don’t want peace. Iran doesn’t want them to want peace. So, if America’s only remaining interest in the Middle East is Israel, and that benefits its Arab neighbors, they’ll play along.
