The ever evolving state of national polling has a new normal. Trump leads, followed by Cruz, then Carson, then Rubio. Everyone polling below that (at least this week) is white noise (racist!); candidates who are not resonating or no longer resonating for one reason or another.
Cruz has been rising, Carson falling. Rubio, a potentially acceptable candidate for the Republican elite, has risen in recent weeks along with Cruz, both collecting Carson defectors after a series of missteps by the candidate.
This new template applies to North and South Carolina as well, where the leader board reads, Trump, with Cruz, Carson, and Rubio tied or within a point of each other.
Iowa is an outlier. One poll has Cruz up by 5 and another has Trump up by 13. But Cruz is in the best position to win Iowa right now and if he gets the Vander Plaats endorsement he will own Iowa.
And it matters. The nominee in either party has always been someone who wins either Iowa or New Hampshire, with one exception. In 1992 Bill Clinton lost both and won the nomination and the Presidency. Hillary won’t likely have to try and repeat that magic. While Sanders is a strong contender it the Granite State, Hillary is kicking his ass in Iowa.
But traditions are meant to be broken (ignored, burned or buried), so the progressive mantra goes, and the rumor mill has the GOPe prepared to do anything they must to keep Trump or Cruz from getting the party nod. The RNC has already gamed the rules against most candidates and could easily be seen to contort the convention to their desired outcome, if Trump or Cruz prevails.
People paying attention take note. The party ‘central planners’ view these gentleman as a threat to their stranglehold on power.
The rule with Democrats is that if they support something, no matter what, Republicans should immediately be suspicious. If they oppose something it deserves a good look and probably our support. These rules apply to the GOP Establishment as well. If it scares them, no matter what else you read or hear, it is probably bad for “business as usual” in Washington.
If it is bad for the Washington Cartel it is likely an improvement for liberty and local control.