I got included on an email thread (somehow – I still find it amusing that someone would want to know what I think…I’m just an ordinary schlub here in central NH; nothin’ special…). Anyways, a couple of ruminations on the state of the Republican Primary race in NH-CD2…after, of course, "re-setting" it from being an email from some folks that attended a debate and a couple of folks from one of the campaigns chiming in…
Clearing the air? Dunno if that is necessary, I look at this as a conversation, and am not surprised at anything in your reply (in fact, I WOULD have been surprised at anything OTHER than what you said). Still, even as you make good arguments, I have heard similar from Jennifer’s [that would be Jennifer Horn -Skip]campaign. The end result is that many of the Conservative grassroots that have not indicated a leaning one way or another are in agony as to "what is the right (and Right) thing to do?". We hear the rhetoric from both campaigns, many of us like BOTH Jennifer and Bob (full disclosure: I have known Jennifer a couple years longer than Bob), but still feel torn as to whom to support.
The "vote split" is a terrible and real possibility and the likely outcome (Bass getting the nod) the longer this continues; it is this that is scaring the hee-bee jee-bees out of all of us [in the Conservative side – NOT the Moderate / Squish wing of the Party].
Yet, the dilemma is not solved in the minds of most of us in the state of "unendorsed" even with this impending doom rocketing towards us – does NH CD-2 want to be known as electing the male Congressman equivalent of the Maine Twins (re; Bass)?
>> Regarding a third entity getting in, and I think we all know whom we are referring, the more the merrier.
I have heard up to 3 other names….and I dunno if any will proceed and I know little other than rumor at this time. Like I said, it is getting real late for THIS political environment and this "peculiar" political scene (which, given Obama’s headlong Marxist rush and the organic pushback from the Right AND Center, is unlike anything I have ever seen) for new folks to pop in.
Can Bass be stopped? Yes. Criteria:
- Will it take money? Yes
- Will it take a lot of money? Yes
- Why? As I said before: message swampage to be combatted.
- Will it take someone that can build name recognition to at least a level just below Bass’s quickly? Yes – I think within 10% of his numbers within a month (September is coming quick).
- Can that happen? Yes – with Binnie-esque tactics and money. Yes, Binnie has shown moderate leanings and has shown some tendencies for flip-flop (re: AZ law), but for the NON-political junkie set, he IS buying name recognition – and has bought that very quickly (albeit, at a very high cost).
Sidebar: do I like the intrusion of early mass market politics in NH? Nope – but it is working here like it does elsewhere.
- On a related note – can they also self-fund? One name I have heard can do such….
- Do they have access to outside state money (face it, that is going to be necessary to win both the primary and the general)?
- Can they get some "Name" endorsements?
- Can they get some good campaign staffers and well known activists to help out in the campaign?
- How good would their media game plan be (and executed)?
- Can they do something "different" that catches attention to create buzz to a level that hasn’t been seen yet in CD-2?
- Will any of these 3 gain traction? Assume a Republican stance vs an Independent run:
- Will this person be known by the Establishment Rep network – and be judged acceptable so as to take mind share (and perhaps, dollar share)?
- Will this person be able to articulate a solid Conservative stance?
- Can they do that AND convince grassroots crowd (that would be folks like us) that it is a solid foundation and NOT mere words for campaigning?
- Can that person persuade the ‘roots such that they would be comfortable with that message and person?
- Can they quickly appeal to the non-inside-baseball public?
And the list goes on – and nothing more than anyone getting this email hasn’t already done a mental checklist on their own as well.
Can any of those three rumor names fulfill all of the criteria? I dunno – one might get most, but I don’t know about all. The other two – maybe half.
If they all go all in, there will be but one question to be answered: "Can ONE of them zoom to the top within a month’s time period?" Or, "will the 5 all get together in a rubber walled room with appropriate weaponry, without supporters or staffers, duke it out, let ONE lead the way out, and the other four act in a kissy-face manner and line up behind the war-weary victor?"
<redacted>, from your email, I have my doubts that your campaign would go along with this. I can probably just as cheerfully say the same thing about Jen’s campaign. And if others are going to come in – "logjam " is the operative word but "stalemate" works as well.
Which is getting to be just plain "stale". And Bass is just ROTFL.
…waiting for the dust to settle is the right course of action – I think MORE dust HAS to be sent flying before being allowed to settle in order to get things into order.
Don’t get me wrong – either of the 2 are better than Bass, but neither has shown me the ability / results yet to pull it off. Jen has yet to show that pulling King in to speak for her (I did get to the Concord event and put the video up on GraniteGrok) is going to pay off and Bob has not been able to do anything similar.
So, I’m concerned.
I have no idea where you stand on this issue, but I see two nice folks that, to date if I am to look at this honestly and objectively, haven’t ignited a fire with the electorate.
This is why the game is played rather than just called. This is why elections are held instead of just appointed. Surefire things flame out and a "in the bag" deal finds the hole. In the mean time, we just live the game and ride the political wave. Is it a ride to the beach or a ride into the reef as far as Conservatives are concerned?
Stay tuned…
