With the countdown to election day ticking, the dynamics of the assorted races seemingly change by the minute. "He’s up. She’s down. The election is won. The election is lost. It will be bad for the GOP. All is lost. Dems get control. Republicans hang on." And all before a single vote gets cast. Thankfully, for better or worse, it all ends Tuesday.
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I never really know what to make of the political polling- As can be often heard at the lunchroom table or by the watercooler, I too must confess I have never been polled. Neither, to the best of my knowledge, has anybody that I know. What does this mean? I know plenty of people that vote that don’t really have a traditional phone by which they can be reached- they instead use cell phones. How are these folks polled? It is widely agreed that opinion and exit pollsters badly called the last string of elections. Should this one be different?
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With that being said, reports indicate that polls are showing the Democrat candidates are surging ahead. Pundits question whether "the base" of the GOP will even bother to turn out. As I’ve previously noted, none of the people that I know who are card-carrying members of "the base" will sit this election out- as they would not in ANY election. Most of them that don’t care for their candidate will "hold their noses" and do the right thing. They, more than most people, understand the implications of a Pelosi-led House aided and abetted by wingnuts like Charles Rangel. No, this election will hinge on that large group of voters in the middle- the so-called "swing voter"- or, as myself and others are wont to call them, "the great unwashed".
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This is how I see it: The electorate is roughly split into 3 groups. (1.) Left. (2.) Right. (3.) Don’t know. Those on the left will always be there, much as those on the right (my camp) will stay put where they are. No amount of persuasive argumentation will cut it with either group. You might call them collectively, "the base". Then we have the aforementioned "great unwashed" or, more accurately, those who "don’t know".
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These people pay no attention to politics or government whatsoever, and get most of what they do "know" from the traditional main stream media (MSM). When it’s election time, they rely almost completely on TV ads and whatever their chosen MSM outlet decides to tell them for help in making a "decision".. It is the hearts and minds of these people for which all both sides fight. Sadly enough, when voting day comes, some will simply cast a ballot for whoever was in the last TV ad they saw as they headed out the door…
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Let’s consider two key congressional races with perennial favorites of "don’t know" voters (moderate)- Sen. Lincoln Chafee in RI and Rep. Charles Bass here in NH.
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As of today, Friday November 3rd, polls show that both men trail their Democratic challengers. Given my theory that assumes those left and right have chosen their respective candidate, these races will be decided by whichever way the middle group breaks.
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My prediction is this: Charlie holds his NH US House seat, while the RI Republican Senator most noted for NOT being a very good one (Republican, that is), Lincoln Chafee loses his. Here’s why-
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In RI, (where I grew up and lived until 1985) certainly one of the bluest of the blue (Democratic) states, the elderly and otherwise government-dependent demographic is substantial. These people must assuredly care less about the war, and more about social service issues and the like. Additionally, the mainstream media in that state runs to the liberal side (The Providence Journal, once a proud conservative voice, is a shell of its former self). The massive propaganda campaign being waged in that state will fall on that middle third of people already receptive to a very liberal, nanny-state message coupled with the "Bush is bad" mantra.
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If I lived there, I would undoubtably cast a ballot for Linc, but if he loses, and the GOP still retains the US Senate, that would probably be a net gain in the long run. I still wouldn’t give that seat up without a fight, though. What’s most surprising about "L’il Rhody" is that this seat has remained Republican as long as it has.
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In NH, it’s a different story. With a less dependent society as a whole, NH’s citizens are more apt to disregard the social-services and actually think about things such as the war. In Charlie Bass’ district, the people tend to be more "independent" and environmentally conscious. Given any thought at all, most people would conclude Charlie is the right fit for them. Unfortunately, many of that "don’t care" group won’t give the issues much thought, and therein lies the problem. It is up to somebody to convince them.
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In NH, ironically, it looks like it’s the conservatives and their last minute push that will help Charlie squeak this one out. Here is a note I just received from one of my hardcore conservative/libertarian collegues, Ed Naile of the Coalition of NH Taxpayers (CNHT) on the danger of the Democrat winning Bass’ seat, like what happened years back (Dick Swett):
We had a "moderate" Democrat go to Washington and evolve into an anti-Second Amendment liberal. Hodes is just the same as Swett. Trial lawyer, Paul Hodes having worked at the NH AG’s office doesn’t endear him to me either.
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I jumped aboard the Bass campaign this week when I saw the "He Voted for Torture" signs an illegal PAC called "Citizens Against Torture" put up next to Bass signs. They were taken down by someone after nightfall that evening and fresh Hodes signs appeared in their place. Charlie Bass has always been approachable to NH citizens. I know this from personal experience. Even though I have supported several of his opponents in primaries and voted for Libertarians. He does not deserve the treatment he is getting from out-of state activists like Moveon.nuts and our UNH "phony push polls".
I don’t believe that Chafee has this sort of support from conservative heavy hitters like Ed, because in RI, there just aren’t any.
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Oh, and then there’s this- while not that scientific, the children of voters must tend to follow in their parent’s beliefs about general politics. The Portsmouth Herald’s Seacoast Online reports:
Children from 41 schools participated in the mock election Thursday by calling in votes to the New Hampshire Public Television studios.
Lynch finished with 6,012 votes, a commanding lead over Republican challenger Jim Coburn’s 2,017 votes.
Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who visited students at the studio on Thursday, lost to Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Jeb Bradley in District 1. Shea-Porter received 828 mock votes and Bradley got 1,304.
The Congressional race was closer in the 2nd District. Republican incumbent Charlie Bass won over Democrat Paul Hodes 2,633 to 2,066. Libertarian candidate Ken Blevens received 403 votes.
Whether Tuesday’s election will mimic the students’ vote is anybody’s guess, but election coordinator and Sunapee teacher Laura Kessler said the event can sometimes be a good indicator.
"Oftentimes we see it does follow the actual election," she said.
Thiis time won’t be any different. Jeb Wins. Charlie wins. Governor Do-Nuthin’ wins too.
