April 1 Coronavirus: The Murray Model vs. The Actual Numbers for New Hampshire - Granite Grok

April 1 Coronavirus: The Murray Model vs. The Actual Numbers for New Hampshire

So here is what the Murray Model predicted for today … April 1st … in terms of hospitalizations, 405 people would be in the hospital for Coronavirus:

The actual number (covidtracking.com) is a total of 59 hospitalized to date:

So at a minimum, the Murray Model overestimated needed hospital beds by 346, or 7X.

As far as mortality, the Murray Model projected 9 deaths today alone:

As you can see from the screen-shot from covidtracking.com, the actual number was one death.

And to be clear, the Murray Model projections assume the containment measures we have in place are in place. In other words, the model is NOT what would happen without mitigation. It purports to depict what we are facing even with mitigation.

Also, despite Sununu saying he might continue the lockdown for months, nobody in the press is questioning Sununu about what model (I suspect it is the Murray Model) is driving his decision-making.