Guest-post by Paul Sepe, Littleton, NH Tea Party.
[Tom: Charlie Bass may receive Conservative support in the ballot box on November 2, but his actions thereafter will determine his future fate. People will be watching, recording, and remembering what Charlie does, or doesn’t do, for the Conservative community, and for the good of NH and the United States.]
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A few weeks, ago, Charlie Bass met with several dozen of Jennifer Horn’s supporters at her house. We were unanimous in respect for his effort to reach out to us; he certainly knew we would not be an easy audience. I was predisposed to vote for him – more precisely, against Kuster – before the meeting, and I remain so. I know a few conservatives who refuse to vote for him, and others who are still considering. For his part, Charlie tried to convince us that he’s conservative where it counts; it is true that this election will turn on fiscal and economic policy, not social issues. I’d say his success was limited; the meeting became more combative as it went on. Even so, Jennifer invited everyone back to her house a year from now (provided Charlie wins), and Charlie accepted.
The political battles are getting dirtier by the day. But, …
…if we conservatives win enough of them, next year in Congress is going to be far uglier. The only way to stall Obamacare (et al.) is to starve it, and that’s got to start in the House. Obama and the Democrats will do anything and everything to save their "Big Blanking Deal" – including "shutting down" government, and they’ll have plenty of media to help blame the Republicans. Remember how Gingrich blinked in 1995 (of course, it didn’t help when Rush Limbaugh blew up the Murrah Federal Building – more of that coming; racist Tea Parties are just the beginning), and more recently, "the party of no" and Biden’s "If we lose, we’re going to play hell"; whatever that means, it’s not pretty. Obama is not like Clinton, who hired Dick Morris and ran back to his DLC roots when he lost. Obama will not triangulate; his roots are socialist, and he’s all in. If he loses Obamacare, he loses everything. This will be a scorched-earth war.
It’s unlikely that Republicans will have the overwhelming majority in the House that the Democrats have had for the past two years; it is impossible that we’ll have such a majority in the Senate, and we may well not have one at all. If the House is even within a few dozen votes, Charlie will be singled out by the Democrats to be picked off. He will likely be on the Budget Committee; he has a record (or at least a reputation) or being a moderate-progressive and trying to get along with Democrats; and he made it very clear that he doesn’t believe his district, which he said is purple trending blue, will have his back. Most of the new Republican class is solidly conservative; he has not been. One of the participants in the meeting told Charlie how much we’re depending on him; the clear subtext is that he has not inspired confidence. Democrats know this. He will have a target on his back.
Charlie should promise us that he’ll stand with Cantor, Bachmann, Ryan, and the rest, even in the face of the enormous pressure he’s sure to feel from the Democrats and the old media (is there a difference?) to be a bipartisan good guy and not shut government down and starve babies and put old people out in the snow. This is not some far-fetched hypothetical situation. It’s a concrete, black-and-white distillation of his claim that he’s with us this time. In a year, I want to hear him tell us how he helped defund and halt Obamacare, cut federal spending, and renewed all of the Bush tax cuts – and accept our thanks, plaudits, and wholehearted support in 2012. If he’s unwilling to commit to this, we’d probably not be much worse off with Kuster – better a liberal Democrat than a Republican turncoat who provides a veneer of bipartisanship.
Most conservatives want to vote for Charlie; Jennifer Horn gave her wholehearted endorsement at the close of the meeting. The stakes are high enough – and Kuster abhorrent enough – that we’ll probably generally hold our noses. But he’ll get some active support now – and a much easier primary if he decides to run in 2012 – if he commits to stand with us no matter what, and fulfills that commitment.