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Rudy Giuliani in NH back in April (GG file photo)
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While everybody is up in arms about the Giuliani campaign’s announced intention of counting delegate votes BEYOND the early ones (like here in NH)–I’m not. Sure, there are those who might say Hizzoner is somehow "dissing" early states like ours, I respectfully disagree. Unlike the Thompson campaign, Rudy Giuliani truly has been here "early and often." I know… I have seen him here in the Granite State on numerous occasions.
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That being said, the naysayers are trying to imply that somehow Rudy just doesn’t "care" about the folks in the early primary states. I beg to differ– I give credit to his team for having a long term strategy for a win. This is a good quality, in my book– the type leaders must employ. "Yeah, but to say that a candidate could win the nomination without the momentum of a win in any early state is a stretch, Doug…"
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Tht’s not necessarily true, as we learn from an AP story by Libby Quaid, based on this campaign teleconference as recounted by Marc Ambinder:
ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Early momentum has been the surefire way to win modern presidential primaries: Emerge as the front-runner in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, then steamroll through later states to become the nominee..Most of the Republican candidates are betting on this approach for 2008, but Rudy Giuliani is counting on something simpler: delegate math..His plan is based on the fact that Florida and several other big states, trying to loosen the grip of the traditional early contests, are voting earlier than usual to compete for influence and attention from the candidates..The shake-up might help Giuliani capture the nomination, even without the "must-win" early states.
What if the first round of primaries & caucuses come and go, with no clear victor? What if McCain took NH, Huckabee Iowa, and Romney South Carolina? That would leave the race still clearly wide open. When you look at the order of states as the process unfolds, as shown in this piece by our pal Jen Rubin, you could make a plausible case that the Feb 5 Super Tuesday favors Rudy Giuliani. We discussed this very scenario this Saturday on Meet the New Press with political writer Jen Rubin, two full days before yesterday’s campaign call. Click here for the mp3 download or use the handy player below:
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