OK, perhaps not the most accurate of methodologies but it IS real people putting their REAL money where their mouths are. Or, to put it another way, where the profit leads – and profits seem to be racing away from Marco Rubio (reformatted, emphasis mine):
BEDFORD, N.H. (MarketWatch) — It won’t show up in the polls before the New Hampshire primary Tuesday.
But if the sports-betting market is any guide, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is suddenly in a lot of trouble. Rubio’s been in freefall on the sports markets since his debacle in Saturday’s Republican presidential debate, where he got owned by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. As an illustration, on the sports-betting exchange Predictit, Rubio’s perceived chance of winning the New Hampshire primary has collapsed in two days from 27% to 8%.
And his perceived chance of becoming the eventual nominee has plummeted by 17 percentage points to 37%.
Well, we won’t know until the Fat Lady sings tomorrow how well it is modeling real world events. At this point, no one knows how this is going to turn out tomorrow. But it sure will be interesting to find out – and after having this gone on for two years here in NH, it will be nice to hear that the phone stops ringing about campaigns and opinion polls and my mailbox has space for useful main (Saturday, I had 15 LARGE political full color mailers in my mailbox – all quite expensive to make and to mail including that absolutely stupid Jeb! paper dice thingamabob. What a complete waste of money! But hey, I bet it made Mike Murphy (no relation, that God!), Bush’s campaign manager a pretty set of coin on the media commissions).
